IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecr/col070/48582.html

Commodity prices and capital movement phenomena in emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Vieira, Fabrício de Assis Campos
  • Farias, Eliene de Sá
  • Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki de

Abstract

The different fluctuations recorded in the balance of payments of emerging economies reflect the vulnerability of these economies, dependent as they are on the balance of capital and trade flows. This study analyses the relationship between commodity prices and some capital movement phenomena in a group of selected emerging economies. Probit and cloglog models are estimated to establish the likelihood of these phenomena occurring and their main determinants over the period from 1995 to 2016. The results allow us to identify the main global and country-level factors shaping the phenomena, as well as the importance of the contagion effect. The study concludes that countries which export large volumes of commodities, such as soybeans, minerals and oil, are subject to phenomena of reduction in foreign capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Vieira, Fabrício de Assis Campos & Farias, Eliene de Sá & Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki de, 2022. "Commodity prices and capital movement phenomena in emerging economies," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:48582
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/48582
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 574-580, May.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2016. "When Do Capital Inflow Surges End in Tears?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 581-585, May.
    5. Kim, Yoonbai, 2000. "Causes of capital flows in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-253, April.
    6. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:66:p:285-342 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    8. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
    9. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    10. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    11. Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio, 2007. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls, and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 241-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    13. Michele Polline Veríssimo & Clésio Lourenço Xavier, 2014. "Tipos De Commodities, Taxa De Câmbio Ecrescimento Econômico: Evidências Da Maldição Dos Recursos Naturaispara O Brasil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 103, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Roman Liesenfeld & Guilherme Valle Moura & Jean‐François Richard, 2010. "Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 486-517, August.
    15. Alberola, Enrique & Erce, Aitor & Serena, José Maria, 2016. "International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 151-171.
    16. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Bo & Yan, Ruolan & Chen, Yang, 2025. "Predicting abnormal capital flow episodes with machine learning methods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Rogelio V. Mercado, 2018. "Not all surges of gross capital inflows are alike," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(2), pages 326-347, May.
    3. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.
    4. Boonman, Tjeerd, 2023. "Have drivers of portfolio capital flows changed since the Global Financial Crisis?," MPRA Paper 116507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2019. "What Drives Stops in Cross-Border Bond Flows?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2023. "Portfolio capital flows before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Boubekeur Baba & Guven Sevil, 2020. "The behavior of stock market prices throughout the episodes of capital inflows," Papers 2008.13472, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    8. Davis, J. Scott & Valente, Giorgio & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Global drivers of gross and net capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
    10. J. Scott Davis & Giorgio Valente & Eric van Wincoop, 2019. "Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows," NBER Working Papers 25721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    12. Ftiti, Zied & Ben Ameur, Hachmi & Louhichi, Wael & Anastasiou, Dimitris & Awijen, Haithem, 2024. "Revisiting capital flow drivers: Regional dynamics, constraints, and geopolitical influences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Broos, Menno & Ghalanos, Michalis & Kennedy, Bernard & Landbeck, Alexander & Lerner, Christina & Menezes, Paula & Schiavone, Alessandro & Tilley, Thomas & Viani, Francesca & Reinhardt, Dennis & Metzem, 2016. "Dealing with large and volatile capital flows and the role of the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 180, European Central Bank.
    14. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2015. "FDI, debt and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 29-50.
    15. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2015. "Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?," IMF Working Papers 2015/138, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    18. Carvalho, Daniel, 2020. "Leverage and valuation effects: How global liquidity shapes sectoral balance sheets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Dennis Bernhard Sebastian Reinhardt & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "Las olas de capital no son todas iguales: análisis sectorial de las alzas en las entradas de IED," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 57-92, abril-jun.
    20. Wang, Lirong & Zhou, Jinnan & Hueng, C. James, 2022. "Dynamics of gross capital flows and financial stress in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:48582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.