IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-15-00361.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survival of Nigeria's Exports in Her Biggest Markets: Continuous and Discrete Time Estimations

Author

Listed:
  • Damilola Felix Arawomo

    (Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research, NISER)

Abstract

Trade duration and its determinants have been largely overlooked in both theoretical and empirical literature, especially in the developing countries. It is in view of this, that this paper examined extent and drivers of export survival of Nigeria's products in her biggest markets (United State, Germany, France, China, and Japan). While the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to examine the extent of Nigeria's export survival in her major destinations, the Cox proportional hazards model and Prentice-Gloeckler were compared in estimating the determinants of survival. Results show that the survival rate of Nigeria's export has been low. 49.4% of Nigeria's export survives for more than one year, 37.8% survives for up to 10 years, and only 4.5% survives a 42 years period. As regards the determinants of export survival, language, initial export value, and exchange rate are the factors that promote the survival of Nigeria's export, while distance, GDP per capita, colonial ties, total export, competition, and tariff discourages it.

Suggested Citation

  • Damilola Felix Arawomo, 2015. "Survival of Nigeria's Exports in Her Biggest Markets: Continuous and Discrete Time Estimations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1700-1708.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00361
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I3-P173.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aeberhardt, Romain & Buono, Ines & Fadinger, Harald, 2014. "Learning, incomplete contracts and export dynamics: Theory and evidence from French firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 219-249.
    2. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Die another day: duration in German import trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 133-154, April.
    3. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    4. Ana Cristina Molina & Marco Fugazza, 2009. "The determinants of trade survival," IHEID Working Papers 05-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2009.
    5. Ines Buono & Harald Fadinger & Romain Aeberhardt, 2009. "Learning and the Dynamics of Exporting: Theory and Evidence from French Firms," 2009 Meeting Papers 606, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2011. "Exporting from a small landlocked economy : an assessment of firm-product-destination survival rates in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5695, The World Bank.
    7. Marco Fugazza & Ana Cristina Molina, 2011. "On The Determinants Of Exports Survival," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. MAJUNE, Socrates, 2015. "A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014," MPRA Paper 68727, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2017. "Export survival and the dynamics of experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 271-300, May.
    2. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2015. "The Experience of Survival: Determinants of Export Survival in Lao PDR," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 82-94.
    3. Marco Fugazza & Alain McLaren, 2014. "Market Access, Export Performance and Survival: Evidence from Peruvian Firms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 599-624, August.
    4. Laura D'Amato & Máximo Sangiácomo & Martin Tobal, 2020. "Export survival and foreign financing," BIS Working Papers 877, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Joakim Gullstrand & Maria Persson, 2015. "How to combine high sunk costs of exporting and low export survival," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 23-51, February.
    6. E.O. Annette Pelkmans-Balaoing & Gerrit Hugo van Heuvelen & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2016. "Firm Export Survival: Micro-Evidence from the Philippines," CESifo Working Paper Series 6270, CESifo.
    7. Straume, Hans-Martin & Asche, Frank, 2015. "Duration and temporary trade," Working Papers in Economics 04/15, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    8. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Arjan Lejour, 2015. "The Duration of Dutch Export Relations: Decomposing Firm, Country and Product Characteristics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 155-176, June.
    10. Yang, Bixuan & Asche, Frank & Anderson, James L., 2019. "Trade dynamics and duration of Chinese food imports," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291085, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Türkcan, Kemal, 2016. "On the role of vertical differentiation in enhancing survival of export flows: Evidence from a developing country," MPRA Paper 71023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Črt Kostevc & Katja Zajc Kejžar, 2020. "Firm‐level export duration: The importance of market‐specific ownership linkages," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1277-1308, May.
    13. Céline CARRERE & Vanessa STRAUSS-KAHN, 2012. "Exports Dynamics: Raising Developing Countries Exports Survival through Experience," Working Papers P35-A, FERDI.
    14. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    15. Bojnec, Štefan & Fertő, Imre, 2018. "Economic Crisis and the Fragility of Comparative Advantage in European Agriculture," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(3), September.
    16. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2011. "Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival," Working Paper Series 880, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    17. Yangyuyu Luo & Sayeeda Bano, 2020. "Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 605-631, July.
    18. Albornoz, Facundo & Fanelli, Sebastián & Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2016. "Survival in export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 262-281.
    19. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    20. Luisa Blanco & Jesse Mora & Michael Olabisi & James E. Prieger, 2020. "Synergies and competition: Export survival in Africa and Latin America," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 245-273, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export Survival; Export Hazard; Kaplan-Meier estimator; Cox proportional hazard; Prentice-Gloeckler;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.