Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival
Aiming to explore how the survival of trade flows has evolved over time, we analyze a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962–2006. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the extended time period that we study: in general only 40 percent of trade flows survive the first year of service, and this share has not changed much since the 1960s. However, this observed constancy is the result of two underlying trends that work in opposite directions. On the one hand, positive trends in several of the observed explanatory variables – which in turn influence the hazard of trade flows dying in a negative direction – imply that the hazard tends to decrease over calendar time. On the other hand, there is also a positive trend in the hazard due to calendar year-specific unobserved factors. Holding all observed determinants constant, the probability of a trade flow dying in its first year increases from 34% at the beginning of the period to 90% at the end.
|Date of creation:||23 Aug 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +46 8 665 4500
Fax: +46 8 665 4599
Web page: http://www.ifn.se/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert C. Feenstra, 1997. "U.S. Exports, 1972-1994: With State Exports and Other U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 5990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pekka Ilmakunnas & Satu Nurmi, 2010.
"Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 101-126, 03.
- Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2007.
"The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
13628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
- Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2008. "Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: Does it Matter How They Diversify?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9291, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013.
"Success and failure of African exporters,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
- Olivier Cadot & Leonardo Iacovone & Denisse Pierola & Ferdinand Rauch, 2011. "Success and Failure of African Exporters," CEP Discussion Papers dp1054, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2011. "Success and failure of African exporters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5657, The World Bank.
- Brun, Jean-François & Carrère, Céline & de Melo, Jaime & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2002.
"Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean-François Brun & Céline Carrère & Patrick Guillaumont & Jaime de Melo, 2005. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(1), pages 99-120.
- Jean-François BRUN & Céline CARRERE & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Jaime MELO DE, 2002. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," Working Papers 200215, CERDI.
- Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010.
"The Duration of Trade Revisited. Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards,"
2010:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "The Duration of Trade Revisited: Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards," Working Paper Series 829, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005.
"On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well,"
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
- Carrere, Celine & Schiff, Maurice, 2004. "On the geography of trade : distance is alive and well," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3206, The World Bank.
- Céline CARRERE & Maurice SCHIFF, 2004. "On the Geography of Trade: Distance is Alive and Well," Working Papers 200423, CERDI.
- Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2004.
"The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade,"
Development Working Papers
186, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
- Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
- Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade," Post-Print hal-01172854, HAL.
- Görg, Holger & Kneller, Richard & Muraközy, Balázs, 2007.
"What Makes a Successful Export?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, 2008. "What makes a successful export?," Kiel Working Papers 1399, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, 2008. "What Makes a Successful Export?," CeFiG Working Papers 2, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 01 Feb 2008.
- Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, . "What Makes a Successful Exporter?," Discussion Papers 08/01, University of Nottingham, GEP.
- Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011.
"Exploring the duration of EU imports,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
- Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2010.
"What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 474-499, December.
- Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & von Uexkull, Erik, 2009. "What explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4951, The World Bank.
- Ana Cristina Molina & Marco Fugazza, 2009. "The determinants of trade survival," IHEID Working Papers 05-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2009.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0880. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elisabeth Gustafsson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.