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Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival

Author

Listed:
  • Hess , Wolfgang

    (Lund University)

  • Persson, Maria

    () (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

Abstract

Aiming to explore how the survival of trade flows has evolved over time, we analyze a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962–2006. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the extended time period that we study: in general only 40 percent of trade flows survive the first year of service, and this share has not changed much since the 1960s. However, this observed constancy is the result of two underlying trends that work in opposite directions. On the one hand, positive trends in several of the observed explanatory variables – which in turn influence the hazard of trade flows dying in a negative direction – imply that the hazard tends to decrease over calendar time. On the other hand, there is also a positive trend in the hazard due to calendar year-specific unobserved factors. Holding all observed determinants constant, the probability of a trade flow dying in its first year increases from 34% at the beginning of the period to 90% at the end.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess , Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2011. "Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival," Working Paper Series 880, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0880
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, "undated". "What Makes a Successful Exporter?," Discussion Papers 08/01, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    2. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "The Duration of Trade Revisited: Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards," Working Paper Series 829, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    3. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    4. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    5. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2008. "Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: Does it Matter How They Diversify?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9291, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Jean-François Brun & Céline Carrère & Patrick Guillaumont & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 13, pages 299-320 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Pekka Ilmakunnas & Satu Nurmi, 2010. "Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 101-126, March.
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    9. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2010. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 474-499, December.
    10. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    11. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
    12. Ana Cristina Molina & Marco Fugazza, 2009. "The determinants of trade survival," IHEID Working Papers 05-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2009.
    13. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration of Trade; Survival; Entry and Exit; European Union; Discrete-Time Hazard Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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