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Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival

  • Hess , Wolfgang

    (Lund University)

  • Persson, Maria


    (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

Aiming to explore how the survival of trade flows has evolved over time, we analyze a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962–2006. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the extended time period that we study: in general only 40 percent of trade flows survive the first year of service, and this share has not changed much since the 1960s. However, this observed constancy is the result of two underlying trends that work in opposite directions. On the one hand, positive trends in several of the observed explanatory variables – which in turn influence the hazard of trade flows dying in a negative direction – imply that the hazard tends to decrease over calendar time. On the other hand, there is also a positive trend in the hazard due to calendar year-specific unobserved factors. Holding all observed determinants constant, the probability of a trade flow dying in its first year increases from 34% at the beginning of the period to 90% at the end.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Industrial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 880.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 23 Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0880
Contact details of provider: Postal: Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Box 55665, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
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  1. Céline CARRERE & Maurice SCHIFF, 2004. "On the Geography of Trade: Distance is Alive and Well," Working Papers 200423, CERDI.
  2. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "Exploring the Duration of EU Imports," Working Paper Series 849, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  3. Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, 2008. "What makes a successful export?," Kiel Working Papers 1399, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2004. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," Development Working Papers 186, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  5. Brun, Jean-François & Carrère, Céline & de Melo, Jaime & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2002. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2008. "Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: Does it Matter How They Diversify?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9291, Inter-American Development Bank.
  7. Robert C. Feenstra, 1997. "U.S. Exports, 1972-1994: With State Exports and Other U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 5990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & von Uexkull, Erik, 2009. "What explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4951, The World Bank.
  9. Olivier Cadot & Leonardo Iacovone & Denisse Pierola & Ferdinand Rauch, 2011. "Success and Failure of African Exporters," CEP Discussion Papers dp1054, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "The Duration of Trade Revisited. Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards," Working Papers 2010:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  11. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
  12. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Nurmi, Satu, 2007. "Dynamics of export market entry and exit," MPRA Paper 6060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Ana Cristina Molina and Marco Fugazza, 2009. "The determinants of trade survival," IHEID Working Papers 05-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2009.
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