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HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? Evidence from panel-data for African countries

  • Arshia Amiri

    ()

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran)

  • Ulf-g Gerdtham

    ()

    (Health Economics & Management, Institute of Economic Research, Lund University)

  • Bruno Ventelou

    ()

    (Aix Marseille School of Economics (Greqam CNRS & SESSTIM Inserm IRD Université Aix-Marseille))

To test potential bilateral causalities relation between HIV-AIDS mortality and GDP, we propose a simple Granger noncausality test for heterogeneous panel data models. 44 African countries are selected for annual pooled data from 1990 to 2009. Results are presented for the heterogeneous noncausality hypothesis (HENC), which tests, for each cross-section unit, the nullity of all the coefficients of the lagged explanatory variable. Bilateral causality relation is observed for 5 countries out of 44 (11% of the countries in our data set). We have 18 countries of unidirectional causality, which 14 are from HIV mortality rate to GDP (43% from total), and 4 are from GDP to HIV mortality rate (9% from total). These results alert for the risk of epidemic trap, initiated first by the deleterious effect of HIV-Aids on countries income.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1060-1067

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00685
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  1. Christophe HURLIN, 2007. "Testing Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients," Working Papers 1547, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
  2. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2009. "The Granger-causality between health care expenditure and output: a panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 511-518.
  3. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DESBORDES, Rodolphe & LATZER, Hélène, 2008. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," CORE Discussion Papers 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  8. Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2004. "Aids and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach," Working Papers 2004008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2004.
  9. Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Pérez Sebastián & Shankha Chakraborty, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics and development," Working Papers. Serie AD 2010-28, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  10. Nicolas Couderc & Bruno Ventelou, 2005. "AIDS, Economic Growth and the Epidemic Trap in Africa," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 417-426.
  11. Florens, J P & Mouchart, M, 1982. "A Note on Noncausality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 583-91, May.
  12. Venet, Baptiste & Hurlin, Christophe, 2001. "Granger Causality Tests in Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6159, Paris Dauphine University.
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  14. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  15. Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P. Dorian, 1995. "Health capital and cross-country variation in income per capita in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 99-106, April.
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