IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-06f40006.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exactly what is the link between export and growth in Taiwan? new evidence from the Granger causality test

Author

Listed:
  • Shyh-Wei Chen

    (Tunghai University)

Abstract

We assess the validity of the Export-led Growth (ELG) and the Growth-driven Export (GDE) hypotheses in Taiwan by testing for Granger causality using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the bounds testing methodology developed by Pesaran {\it et al.} (PSS, 2001). The empirical results substantiate that a long-run level equilibrium relationship exists among exports, output, terms of trade and labor productivity of the model and that Granger causal flow between real exports and real output is reciprocal. Thus, our results attest to the advantage of the export-led growth strategy for continuous growth in Taiwan.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Exactly what is the link between export and growth in Taiwan? new evidence from the Granger causality test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-06f40006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2007/Volume6/EB-06F40006A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    3. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Reppas, Panayiotis A. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2005. "The export-output growth nexus: Evidence from African and Asian countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 929-940, November.
    6. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-688, November.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    8. Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro, 2001. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 613-623, December.
    9. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    10. Thornton, John, 1997. "Exports and economic growth: Evidence from 19th Century Europe1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 235-240, August.
    11. C. Michael Wernerheim, 2000. "Cointegration and causality in the exports-GDP nexus: The post-war evidence for Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 111-125.
    12. Ahmad, Jaleel & Harnhirun, Somchai, 1995. "Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 329-334, September.
    13. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    15. Kunst, Robert M & Marin, Dalia, 1989. "On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 699-703, November.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    17. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    18. Yamada, Hiroshi, 1998. "A note on the causality between export and productivity:: an empirical re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 111-114, October.
    19. Ahmad, Jaleel & Kwan, Andy C. C., 1991. "Causality between exports and economic growth : Empirical evidence from Africa," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 243-248, November.
    20. Paul Turner, 2006. "Response surfaces for an F-test for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 479-482.
    21. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gael Fokam, 2020. "Does Export to Japan Promote Economic Growth in Africa? A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(7), pages 509-514, July.
    2. Darko, Christian Kwasi, 2015. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Ghana," EconStor Preprints 123098, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Sasa OBRADOVIĆ & Nemanja LOJANICA, 2019. "Export-Led Growth: Evidence from Post-Communist Serbia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 131-145, June.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    5. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    6. Bilas Vlatka & Bošnjak Mile & Franc Sanja, 2015. "Examining the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The case of Croatia," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 61(3), pages 22-31, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:7:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2016. "New evidence on the Export-led-growth hypothesis in the Southern Euro-zone countries (1960-2014)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 429-439.
    3. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.
    4. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    5. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.
    6. Bruce Morley & Wyn Morgan, 2008. "Causality between Exports, Productivity and Financial Support in European Union Agriculture," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 189-198.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    8. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    9. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Untangling the nexus of stock price and trading volume: evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(15), pages 1-16.
    10. Awokuse, Titus O. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics and the exports-output growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 184-190, January.
    11. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:15:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:084 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Salman Haider & Aadil Ahmad Ganaie & Bandi Kamaiah, 2019. "Total Factor Productivity and Openness in Indian Economy: 1970–2011," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(1), pages 46-57, February.
    16. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 496-506.
    18. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    19. N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid for Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-02, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    20. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    22. Riezman, Raymond G & Whiteman, Charles H & Summers, Peter M, 1996. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 77-110.
    23. Alkhathlan, Khalid & Javid, Muhammad, 2013. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1525-1532.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-06f40006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.