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SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »

  • Nicolas Couderc
  • Nicolas Drouhin
  • Bruno Ventelou

The aim of this paper is to re-examine the consequences of AIDS on economic growth inAfrica.The model is based on two crucial hypothesis: i) AIDS has a short-term impact on a flow variable (the flow of labour available and capable of working at a moment t in the economy); ii) AIDS has a long-term impact on stock variables (human capital, i.e. the stock of health or the stock of education and competence incorporated in the workers; and physical capital). Integrating these two impacts in a model of growth with multiple factors of accumulation reverses the standard impact-evaluations based on classicaltools(Solow-typemodelofgrowth,with“catching-upeffect”asmechanismof development). An involution trap appears for a reasonable range of epidemiological shocks, corresponding to a modification of the long-term growth regime of the economy.

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Article provided by Dalloz in its journal Revue d'économie politique.

Volume (Year): 116 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 697-715

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Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_165_0697
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  1. Vincent Touze & Bruno Ventelou, 2002. "SIDA et développement : un enjeu mondial," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3883, Sciences Po.
  2. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1997029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  4. Cuddington, John T & Hancock, John D, 1995. "The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Malawi: A Dualistic, Labour Surplus Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, May.
  5. Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr.
  7. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
  8. Nicolas Drouhin, 2001. "Lifetime Uncertainty and Time Preference," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 145-172, December.
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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  13. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  14. Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Joanne Roberts, 2000. "Twin Engines of Growth," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 118, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  15. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  16. Nicolas Couderc & Bruno Ventelou, 2005. "AIDS, Economic Growth and the Epidemic Trap in Africa," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 417-426.
  17. Michael Grimm & Denis Cogneau, 2004. "Socio-economic status, sexual behavior, and differential AIDS mortality Evidence from Cˆote d’Ivoire," HEW 0405003, EconWPA.
  18. Carol Jenkins & David A. Robalino, 2003. "HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : The Costs of Inaction," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15089.
  19. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
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