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SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »

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  • Nicolas Couderc
  • Nicolas Drouhin
  • Bruno Ventelou

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to re-examine the consequences of AIDS on economic growth inAfrica.The model is based on two crucial hypothesis: i) AIDS has a short-term impact on a flow variable (the flow of labour available and capable of working at a moment t in the economy); ii) AIDS has a long-term impact on stock variables (human capital, i.e. the stock of health or the stock of education and competence incorporated in the workers; and physical capital). Integrating these two impacts in a model of growth with multiple factors of accumulation reverses the standard impact-evaluations based on classicaltools(Solow-typemodelofgrowth,with“catching-upeffect”asmechanismof development). An involution trap appears for a reasonable range of epidemiological shocks, corresponding to a modification of the long-term growth regime of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Couderc & Nicolas Drouhin & Bruno Ventelou, 2006. "SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(5), pages 697-715.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_165_0697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vincent Touzé & Bruno Ventelou, 2002. "SIDA et développement : un enjeu mondial," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 153-174.
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    6. Michael Grimm & Denis Cogneau, 2004. "Socio-economic status, sexual behavior, and differential AIDS mortality Evidence from Cˆote d’Ivoire," HEW 0405003, EconWPA.
    7. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
    8. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
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    13. Nicolas Couderc & Bruno Ventelou, 2005. "AIDS, Economic Growth and the Epidemic Trap in Africa," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 417-426.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul Moatti & Bruno Ventelou, 2009. "Économie de la santé dans les pays en développement des paradigmes en mutation," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(2), pages 241-256.

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