SIDA et croissance économique : le risque d'une « trappe épidémiologique »
The aim of this paper is to re-examine the consequences of AIDS on economic growth inAfrica.The model is based on two crucial hypothesis: i) AIDS has a short-term impact on a flow variable (the flow of labour available and capable of working at a moment t in the economy); ii) AIDS has a long-term impact on stock variables (human capital, i.e. the stock of health or the stock of education and competence incorporated in the workers; and physical capital). Integrating these two impacts in a model of growth with multiple factors of accumulation reverses the standard impact-evaluations based on classicaltools(Solow-typemodelofgrowth,with“catching-upeffect”asmechanismof development). An involution trap appears for a reasonable range of epidemiological shocks, corresponding to a modification of the long-term growth regime of the economy.
Volume (Year): 116 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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