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The Color of Electoral Success: Estimating the Effect of Skin Tone on Winning Elections in Mexico

Author

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  • Raymundo M. Campos‐Vazquez
  • Carolina Rivas‐Herrera

Abstract

Objective Evidence suggests that voters’ prejudices may lead them to take information shortcuts in choosing political leaders. This study analyzes whether the skin tone of 12,798 candidates influenced the outcome of their electoral campaigns. Methods To determine the probability of winning an election, we estimate a linear regression where skin tone is used as an explanatory variable, with controls such as sex and political party. Based on the number of votes obtained by each candidate, we estimate an ordered logit model. Results Candidates with dark brown skin tones face a probability of winning that is 20–38 percent less than those with intermediate skin color. A one standard deviation increase in skin tone is associated with an 8 percent decrease in the probability of finishing in first place. Conclusion Skin color influences electoral outcomes. Public policies should therefore ensure equal access and true representativeness.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymundo M. Campos‐Vazquez & Carolina Rivas‐Herrera, 2021. "The Color of Electoral Success: Estimating the Effect of Skin Tone on Winning Elections in Mexico," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 844-864, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:2:p:844-864
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12933
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth Colombe & Alex Krumer & Rosa Lavelle-Hill & Tim Pawlowski, 2025. "Racial bias, colorism, and overcorrection," Papers 2508.10585, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.

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