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The effect of migration on income growth and convergence: Meta‐analytic evidence

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  • Ceren Ozgen
  • Peter Nijkamp
  • Jacques Poot

Abstract

Abstract We compare a set of econometric studies that measure the effect of net internal migration in neoclassical models of long‐run real income convergence and derive 67 comparable effect sizes. The precision‐weighted estimate of beta convergence is about 2.7 per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the net migration rate of a region increases the per capita income growth rate in that region on average by about 0.1 percentage points. Introducing a net migration variable in a growth regression increases the estimate of beta convergence slightly. Studies that use panel models or IV estimation methods yield smaller coefficients of net migration in growth regressions, while the opposite holds for regressions controlling for high‐skilled migration. Resumen Comparamos un conjunto de estudios econométricos que miden el efecto de la migración interna neta en modelos neoclásicos de convergencia de ingresos reales a largo plazo y de ahí obtenemos 67 tamaños de efectos comparables. La estimación ponderada por precisión de la beta‐convergencia es aproximadamente del 2.7 por ciento. Un aumento de un punto porcentual en la tasa de migración neta de una región aumenta la tasa de crecimiento de ingresos per cápita en dicha región en un promedio de aproximadamente 0.1 puntos porcentuales. El introducir una variable de migración neta en una regresión de crecimiento aumenta ligeramente el valor estimado de beta‐convergencia. Los estudios que usan modelos de panel o métodos de estimación por VI producen coeficientes menores de migración neta en regresiones de crecimiento, mientras que sucede lo contrario para regresiones que controlan migración altamente cualificada.

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  • Ceren Ozgen & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2010. "The effect of migration on income growth and convergence: Meta‐analytic evidence," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 537-561, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:89:y:2010:i:3:p:537-561
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2010.00313.x
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    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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