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Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy

Author

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  • Andrew Mason
  • Ronald Lee
  • members of the NTA Network

Abstract

New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub‐Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working‐age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower‐income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & members of the NTA Network, 2022. "Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 51-73, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:48:y:2022:i:1:p:51-73
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12469
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2007. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12608.
    2. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    3. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2011. "Population aging and the generational economy: key findings," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
    5. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    6. Liddle, Brantley, 2015. "What Are the Carbon Emissions Elasticities for Income and Population? Bridging STIRPAT and EKC via robust heterogeneous panel estimates," MPRA Paper 61304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    8. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Lopreite, Milena & Misuraca, Michelangelo & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2023. "An analysis of the thematic evolution of ageing and healthcare expenditure using word embedding: A scoping review of policy implications," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    4. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    5. Wenqun Gao & Yang Chen & Shaorui Xu & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2023. "The Role of Population Aging in High-Quality Economic Development: Mediating Role of Technological Innovation," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, October.

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