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Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Mason
  • Ronald Lee
  • members of the NTA Network

Abstract

New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub‐Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working‐age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower‐income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & members of the NTA Network, 2022. "Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 51-73, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:48:y:2022:i:1:p:51-73
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12469
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    2. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816, June.
    3. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee, 2011. "Population aging and the generational economy: key findings," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    5. Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    6. Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2007. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12608, June.
    7. Liddle, Brantley, 2015. "What Are the Carbon Emissions Elasticities for Income and Population? Bridging STIRPAT and EKC via robust heterogeneous panel estimates," MPRA Paper 61304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition [Fécondité, capital humain et croissance économique au cours de la transition démographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 159-182, May.
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    Cited by:

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    6. Thaveesha Jayawardhana & Sachini Anuththara & Thamasha Nimnadi & Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi & Ruwan Jayathilaka & Kethaka Galappaththi, 2023. "Asian ageing: The relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in the Asian context," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Csaba G. Tóth, 2025. "A New Approach to Understanding Population Change in Central and Eastern Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 51(4), pages 1435-1465, December.
    8. Wang, Feng & Shen, Ke & Cai, Yong, 2025. "When the abundance ends: Economic transformation, population aging, and shrinking lifecycle surplus in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    9. Lopreite, Milena & Misuraca, Michelangelo & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2023. "An analysis of the thematic evolution of ageing and healthcare expenditure using word embedding: A scoping review of policy implications," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    10. Wenqun Gao & Yang Chen & Shaorui Xu & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2023. "The Role of Population Aging in High-Quality Economic Development: Mediating Role of Technological Innovation," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, October.
    11. Cosmas Bernard Meka’a & Moïse Michel Armand Moneboulou, 2025. "Analysis of the accounting effect of the demographic dividend in Cameroon," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 27(3), pages 882-901, December.
    12. Albert Esteve & David S. Reher, 2024. "Trends in Living Arrangements Around the World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(1), pages 211-232, March.
    13. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Tek Maraseni, 2026. "Green strategy and ecological efficiency: a nonlinear machine learning analysis under institutional quality intervention," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 3075-3128, February.
    14. Zhiyang Yu & Jin Chen & Runfa Yu, 2024. "Dose the increasing burden of social endowment affect sustainable development of economy?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(1), pages 1-14, January.
    15. Juan Caballero Reina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Katharina Fenz & Jakob Zellmann & Teodor Yankov & Amr Taha, 2024. "Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Adriana GRENCÍKOVÁ & Jana ŠPANKOVÁ & Richard RIGÓ & Kristína KOZOVÁ, 2024. "The Issue Of Raising The Retirement Age From The Perspective Of Public Administration And The Labour Market," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2024(42), pages 60-75.

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