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Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend

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  • Oosthuizen, Morné J.

Abstract

South Africa is in the process of undergoing a demographic transition and the population is currently ageing. Within the next three decades, the median age is expected to rise from 25years to 31years. As part of this process, the changing age structure of the population gives rise to the demographic dividend. This dividend represents a potential boost to per capita incomes that countries can only access in the presence of a supportive policy context. However, South Africa is still dealing with the consequences of apartheid-era socioeconomic policies and has already progressed through a significant proportion of the first demographic dividend period. Using the National Transfer Accounts approach and data for 2005, this paper investigates the extent of the remaining portion of the first demographic dividend and assesses the prospects for capturing the potentially more significant second dividend.

Suggested Citation

  • Oosthuizen, Morné J., 2015. "Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 14-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:5:y:2015:i:c:p:14-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.007
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    Cited by:

    1. van Tongeren, Jan W. & Bruil, Arjan, 2022. "Projections to 2025 of the household sector within the Dutch economy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Olaniyan, Olanrewaju & Olasehinde, Noah & Odufuwa, Oyeteju & Awodumi, Olabanji, 2021. "The nature and extent of demographic dividend in West Africa: National transfer account approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    3. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The long term impact of Chilean policy reforms on savings and pensions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    4. Haroon Bhorat & Karmen Naidoo & Morné Oosthuizen & Kavisha Pillay, 2015. "Demographic, employment, and wage trends in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Pengkun Wu & Chong Wu & Yuanyuan Wu, 2018. "Reforming Path of China’s Fertility Policy in Stabilizing Demographic Dividends Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 1225-1243, June.
    6. Oosthuizen, Morné, 2024. "Education and South Africa’s waning demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Haroon Bhorat & Karmen Naidoo & Morné Oosthuizen & Kavisha Pillay, 2015. "Demographic, employment, and wage trends in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Gilles Dufrénot, 2018. "The third demographic dividend: measuring the “demographic tax” in the Arab Countries in Transition," Working Papers 2018-15, CEPII research center.
    9. Rentería, Elisenda & Souto, Guadalupe & Istenič, Tanja & Sambt, Jože, 2024. "Generational economic dependency in aging Europe: Contribution of education and population changes," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Morné Oosthuizen, 2019. "Inequality and the generational economy: Race-disaggregated National Transfer Accounts for South Africa, 2015," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-24, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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