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Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend

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  • Oosthuizen, Morné J.

Abstract

South Africa is in the process of undergoing a demographic transition and the population is currently ageing. Within the next three decades, the median age is expected to rise from 25years to 31years. As part of this process, the changing age structure of the population gives rise to the demographic dividend. This dividend represents a potential boost to per capita incomes that countries can only access in the presence of a supportive policy context. However, South Africa is still dealing with the consequences of apartheid-era socioeconomic policies and has already progressed through a significant proportion of the first demographic dividend period. Using the National Transfer Accounts approach and data for 2005, this paper investigates the extent of the remaining portion of the first demographic dividend and assesses the prospects for capturing the potentially more significant second dividend.

Suggested Citation

  • Oosthuizen, Morné J., 2015. "Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 14-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:5:y:2015:i:c:p:14-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.007
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X14000267
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:soinre:v:137:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1642-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Haroon Bhorat & Karmen Naidoo & Morné Oosthuizen & Kavisha Pillay, 2015. "Demographic, employment, and wage trends in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Gilles Dufrénot, 2018. "The third demographic dividend: measuring the “demographic tax” in the Arab Countries in Transition," Working Papers 2018-15, CEPII research center.

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