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A Note on the (Un)Pleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Policy: The Case of Italian Public Debt

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  • Luigi Marattin
  • Massimiliano Marzo

Abstract

Using the simple arithmetic of government budget constraint, we perform an illustrative analysis on the Italian case, investigating the consequences on the main public finance aggregates of the adoption of a fiscal policy rule responding to past real debt/GDP ratio. Such a rule, firmly grounded in the economic analysis, would allow the reduction of Italy's outstanding stock of debt without requiring the strict adherence to the 3 per cent criterion for deficit/GDP ratio, as prescribed by SGP (Stability and Growth Pact). We perform a forecasting exercise under five alternative scenarios and analyse the details of a structural debt reduction strategy with alternative yearly step.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Marattin & Massimiliano Marzo, 2009. "A Note on the (Un)Pleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Policy: The Case of Italian Public Debt," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(3), pages 169-183, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:38:y:2009:i:3:p:169-183
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0300.2009.00212.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    3. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 361-375, June.
    2. L. Marattin, 2013. "When is Austerity Ineffective?," Working Papers wp880, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Alin OPREANA & Diana MIHAIU, 2012. "Fiscal policy and the optimal gdp under a budget constrain condition," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 775-782, May.

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