When is Austerity Ineffective?
This paper offers a formal analysis of the relationship between changes in government primary balance and debt-to-GDP ratio. it establishes the conditions under which a fiscal consolidation increases - instead of decreasing - the stock of government liabilities relative to aggregate output. A crucial role is played by the relationship between the elasticities of average cost of debt and nominal output to primary balance: while the former depends on debt maturity and risk premia dynamics, the latter relates to the well-known controversy on the size of government spending multipliers. The paper shows an application to the ongoing fiscal consolidation process in the Eurozone.
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- Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013.
"Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-20, May.
- Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011.
"Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
- Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 15369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2009.
"Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing,"
NBER Working Papers
15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 13/1, International Monetary Fund.
- Luigi Marattin & Massimiliano Marzo, 2009. "A Note on the (Un)Pleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Policy: The Case of Italian Public Debt," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(3), pages 169-183, November.
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