IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/canjag/v68y2020i2p219-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The COVID‐19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Barichello

Abstract

With the deep recession now forecast for the world economy, trade can be expected to fall even more steeply. Agricultural trade will be less significantly affected, being insulated by its relatively low income elasticities of demand. However, a drop in the range of 12%–20% in real trade value should be expected. Canada can be expected to share in this, but, within agricultural exports, cereals will be least affected. This minimal expected impact to cereals stems partly from the risk of wheat export bans by Russia and Kazakhstan, due to increases in wheat prices. Livestock, pulses, and horticulture exporters can be expected to face a larger decline in trade prospects and revenues. An equally large threat, along with falling incomes in our trade partners, is their policy responses, particularly the potential increase in import restrictions. These may take the form of more costly inspections, tightened SPS and food safety regulations, and protectionist measures from competing domestic producers. Avec la profonde récession qui est maintenant prévue pour l'économie mondiale, le commerce devrait chuter encore plus fortement. Le commerce agricole sera moins affecté, étant isolé par ses élasticités‐revenus de la demande relativement faibles. Il faut cependant s'attendre à une baisse de l'ordre de 12% à 20% de la valeur réelle des échanges. On peut s'attendre à ce que le Canada y participe, mais, dans le cadre des exportations agricoles, les céréales seront les moins touchées. Cet impact minimal attendu sur les céréales découle du risque d'interdiction des exportations de blé par la Russie et le Kazakhstan, en raison de l'augmentation des prix du blé. On peut s'attendre à ce que le bétail, les légumineuses et l'horticulture subissent une baisse plus importante des perspectives d’échanges et des revenus. Une menace tout aussi importante à la baisse des revenus de nos partenaires commerciaux réside dans leurs réponses politiques, en particulier l'augmentation potentielle des restrictions à l'importation. Ces mesures peuvent prendre la forme d'inspections plus coûteuses, d'un resserrement des réglementations PSP et de mesures protectionnistes de la part de producteurs nationaux concurrents.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Barichello, 2020. "The COVID‐19 pandemic: Anticipating its effects on Canada's agricultural trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 219-224, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:68:y:2020:i:2:p:219-224
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12244
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/cjag.12244?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Mizik & Lajos Nagy & Zoltán Gabnai & Attila Bai, 2020. "The Major Driving Forces of the EU and US Ethanol Markets with Special Attention Paid to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Najaf Iqbal & Elie Bouri & Oksana Grebinevych & David Roubaud, 2023. "Modelling extreme risk spillovers in the commodity markets around crisis periods including COVID19," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 305-334, November.
    3. Meuwissen, Miranda & Feindt, Peter & Slijper, Thomas & Spiegel, Alisa & Finger, Robert & de Mey, Yann & Paas, Wim & Termeer, Katrien & Poortvliet, P. Marijn & Peneva, Mariya & Urquhart, Julie & Vigani, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 on farming systems in Europe through the lens of resilience thinking," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 191.
    4. Ezeaku, Hillary & Asongu, Simplice, 2020. "Covid-19 and Cacophony of coughing: Did International commodity Prices catch influenza?," MPRA Paper 107094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dionysis Bochtis & Lefteris Benos & Maria Lampridi & Vasso Marinoudi & Simon Pearson & Claus G. Sørensen, 2020. "Agricultural Workforce Crisis in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Richard Barichello, 2021. "Revisiting the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canada's agricultural trade: The surprising case of an agricultural export boom," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 251-260, June.
    7. Derek Gerald Brewin, 2021. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the grains and oilseeds sector: 12 months later," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 197-202, June.
    8. Santeramo, Fabio G. & Dominguez, Ignacio Perez, 2021. "On the Effects of the COVID Epidemic on Global and Local Food Access and Availability of Strategic Sectors: Role of Trade and Implications for Policymakers," Commissioned Papers 309037, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    9. Tomas Baležentis & Mangirdas Morkūnas & Agnė Žičkienė & Artiom Volkov & Erika Ribašauskienė & Dalia Štreimikienė, 2021. "Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-31, October.
    10. Xinyue Lin & Lingli Qi & Haoran Pan & Basil Sharp, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Technological Progress and Food Security Based on a Dynamic CGE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, February.
    11. Luciano Gutierrez & Guillaume Pierre & Maria Sabbagh, 2022. "Agricultural Grain Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis, Insights from a GVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-13, August.
    12. Giulio Marcucci & Filippo Emanuele Ciarapica & Giovanni Mazzuto & Maurizio Bevilacqua, 2024. "Analysis of ripple effect and its impact on supply chain resilience: a general framework and a case study on agri-food supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 175-200, March.
    13. Feng Wang & Min Wu, 2021. "The Impacts of COVID-19 on China’s Economy and Energy in the Context of Trade Protectionism," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Yury B. Melnikov & Egor Skvortsov & Natalia Ziablitckaia & Alexander Kurdyumov, 2022. "Modeling of Territorial and Managerial Aspects of Robotization of Agriculture in Russia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-17, July.
    15. Hillary C. Ezeaku & Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna, 2020. "Volatility of International Commodity Prices in Times of Covid-19: Effects of Oil Supply and Global Demand Shocks," Working Papers 20/101, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    16. Ziming Bai & Chenyang Liu & Hongye Wang & Cuixia Li, 2023. "Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Global Dairy Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    17. Kondej, Magdalena, 2022. "Assessment of the Financial Condition of Selected Dairy Cooperatives during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 22(4), December.
    18. May T. Yeung & William A. Kerr, 2021. "Canadian Agri-Food Export Opportunities in a Covid-19 World," SPP Briefing Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 14(5), February.
    19. Ramadas Sendhil & Kashish Arora & Sunny Kumar & Priyanka Lal & Arnab Roy & Ramalingam Jayakumara Varadan & Sivasankar Vedi & Anandan Pouchepparadjou, 2023. "Price Dynamics and Integration in India’s Staple Food Commodities—Evidence from Wholesale and Retail Rice and Wheat Markets," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, February.
    20. Zainuddin, Muhamad Rias K V & Shukor, Md Shafiin & Zulkifli, Muhamad Solehuddin & Abdullah, Amirul Hamza, 2021. "Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(1), pages 51-69.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    2. Lewkowicz, Jacek & Woźniak, Michał & Wrzesiński, Michał, 2022. "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    4. Erkmen G Aslim & Wei Fu & Chia-Lun Liu & Erdal Tekin, 2024. "Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care and Health Expenditures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(664), pages 3096-3136.
    5. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    8. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotzé & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2023. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 149-188, July.
    9. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    10. Yanguas Parra, Paola & Hauenstein, Christian & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2021. "The death valley of coal – Modelling COVID-19 recovery scenarios for steam coal markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    11. Jianchun Fang & Giray Gozgor & Sercan Pekel, 2020. "Where You Export Matters: Measuring Uncertainty in Turkey's Export Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8404, CESifo.
    12. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Noman, Ambreen, 2021. "The volatility connectedness of the EU carbon market with commodity and financial markets in time- and frequency-domain: The role of the U.S. economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    15. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Ilias, 2021. "Economic stimulus through bank regulation: Government responses to the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Hongyong ZHANG & Thi Thanh Ha DOAN, 2023. "Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory during the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Miao Tian & Shuhuai Li & Xianghan Cao & Guizhou Wang, 2025. "Network Analysis of Volatility Spillovers Between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Rating Stocks: Evidence from China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    18. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2022. "Assessment of the Similarity of the Situation in the EU Labour Markets and Their Changes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Daniel Rees, 2020. "What Comes Next?," BIS Working Papers 898, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:68:y:2020:i:2:p:219-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caefmea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.