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Modeling the length and shape of the R&D lag: an application to UK agricultural productivity

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  • Colin Thirtle
  • Jenifer Piesse
  • David Schimmelpfennig

Abstract

This article updates total factor productivity (TFP) growth in UK agriculture from 1953–2005 and shows that public and private research and returns to scale explain TFP. Cointegration and causality tests are used to investigate the validity of attempts to explain UK agricultural productivity with R&D and related technology variables. Then, the length and shape of the lag structures are modeled and compared with the structures that are commonly imposed on the data. The rates of return (ROR) to R&D using the data determined lags differ considerably from those obtained by imposing lag shapes. These comparisons show that the ROR to public R&D are sensitive to the lag shape as well as its length and that the omission of other technology variables, such as mechanical and chemical patents pertaining to agriculture and farm size can bias the ROR.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin Thirtle & Jenifer Piesse & David Schimmelpfennig, 2008. "Modeling the length and shape of the R&D lag: an application to UK agricultural productivity," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 73-85, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:39:y:2008:i:1:p:73-85
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00316.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huffman, Wallace E. & Evenson, Robert E., 1993. "Science for Agriculture: A Long Term Perspective," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10997, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Midmore, 2017. "The Science of Impact and the Impact of Agricultural Science," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 611-631, September.
    2. repec:oup:apecpp:v:40:y:2018:i:3:p:421-444. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zuzana Smeets Kristkova & Edward Smeets & Hans van Meijl, 2016. "Agricultural R&D investments, biofuel policy and food security – a CGE analysis," EcoMod2016 9966, EcoMod.
    4. Arega D. Alene, 2010. "Productivity growth and the effects of R&D in African agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(3‐4), pages 223-238, May.
    5. Ruhul A. Salim & Nazrul Islam, 2010. "Exploring the impact of R&D and climate change on agricultural productivity growth: the case of Western Australia ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 561-582, October.
    6. Deng, Haiyan & Jin, Yanhong & Pray, Carl & Hu, Ruifa & Xia, Enjun & Meng, Hong, 2021. "Impact of public research and development and extension on agricultural productivity in China from 1990 to 2013," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Midmore, Peter, 2017. "The Science of Impact and the Impact of Agricultural Science," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258614, Agricultural Economics Society.
    8. Jelliffe, Jeremy & Gerval, Adam & Husby, Megan & Jarrell, Philip & Williams, Brian, 2023. "United Kingdom Agricultural Production and Trade Policy Post-Brexit," USDA Miscellaneous 333547, United States Department of Agriculture.
    9. Wang, Sun Ling & Ball, V. Eldon & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Plastina, Alejandro S., 2012. "Benefits of Public R&D in U.S. Agriculture: Spill-Ins, Extension, and Roads," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126368, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Nevondo, Takalani T. & Chaminuka, Petronella & Nhundu, Kenneth & Liebenberg, Frikkie, 2019. "Economic returns from investment in beef cattle improvement research in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 58(01), February.
    11. Zuzana Smeets Kristkova & Cornelis Gardebroek & Michiel van Dijk & Hans van Meijl, 2017. "The impact of R&D on factor-augmenting technical change – an empirical assessment at the sector level," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 385-417, July.
    12. Thirtle, C., 2013. "Theory, measurement, policy and politics: Agricultural R&D and productivity in three countries," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 51(3), February.
    13. Tomas RATINGER & Zuzana KRISTKOVA, 2015. "R&D Investments, technology spillovers and agricultural productivity, case of the Czech Republic," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(7), pages 297-313.
    14. repec:ags:ijag24:345073 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Andersen, Matthew A., 2019. "Knowledge productivity and the returns to agricultural research: a review," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(2), April.
    16. Yiorgos Gadanakis & Jorge Campos-González & Philip Jones, 2024. "Linking Entrepreneurship to Productivity: Using a Composite Indicator for Farm-Level Innovation in UK Agriculture with Secondary Data," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    17. Alessandro Magrini & Fabio Bartolini & Alessandra Coli & Barbara Pacini, 2019. "A structural equation model to assess the impact of agricultural research expenditure on multiple dimensions," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 2063-2080, July.
    18. Ada Ignaciuk & Daniel Mason-D'Croz, 2014. "Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 70, OECD Publishing.
    19. Fuglie, Keith, 2015. "Accounting for growth in global agriculture," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 4(3), pages 1-34, December.
    20. Kunimitsu, Yoji, 2012. "Causative factors for changes in total factor productivity of Japanese agriculture under the era of climatic uncertainty," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119727, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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