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FX strategies in periods of distress

  • Jacob Gyntelberg
  • Andreas Schrimpf

This article presents an overview of widely practised short-term multicurrency investment strategies such as carry trade, momentum and term spread strategies. We provide evidence on their downside risk properties and illustrate their performance over historical episodes of financial market turmoil. We show that the strategies exhibit substantial tail risks and that they do not perform uniformly during distress periods in global markets. Interestingly, equity market investments feature even greater downside risk.

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Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1112e
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  1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderllind, 2009. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," CREATES Research Papers 2009-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2008. "Trades of the Living Dead: Style Differences, Style Persistence and Performance of Currency Fund Managers," NBER Working Papers 14355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 0. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
  5. Jacob Gyntelberg & Eli M Remolona, 2007. "Risk in carry trades: a look at target currencies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency Momentum Strategies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8747, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," 2004 Meeting Papers 136c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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