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A Stochastic Budgeting Analysis of Three Alternative Scenarios to Convert from Beef-Cattle Farming to Game Ranching

  • Grove, Bennie
  • Taljaard, Pieter R.
  • Cloete, Philip C.
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    The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the profitability and financial feasibility of three alternative scenarios to convert from beef-cattle farming to game ranching. The analyses acknowledge the importance of quantifying the probability of failure or success when making investment decisions. Risk is incorporated into a standard net present value analysis using risk simulation. De-trended historical auction prices of live game and on-the-hoof prices of weaner cattle were used to quantify price variability. The stochastic net present value analyses indicate that game ranching is more profitable than cattle farming. Although an investment in a limited number of common game species is financially feasible, the cash flow analysis indicates a decreasing probability of making more money with game when annual cash flows are compared to those generated by means of cattle farming. Both the high-value game species scenarios are financially unfeasible during the first five years. These infeasibilities stem from a high probability of not covering instalments to finance game purchases, the extent to which these instalments are not covered, and the high probability of shortfalls in consecutive years.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7048
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    Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its journal Agrekon.

    Volume (Year): 46 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:7048
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.aeasa.org.za/
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    1. Selley, Roger A. & Wilson, Paul N., 1997. "Risk Research And Public Outreach: A Tale Of Two Cultures?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(02), December.
    2. Lien, Gudbrand, 2003. "Assisting whole-farm decision-making through stochastic budgeting," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 399-413, May.
    3. Richardson, James W. & Klose, Steven L. & Gray, Allan W., 2000. "An Applied Procedure For Estimating And Simulating Multivariate Empirical (Mve) Probability Distributions In Farm-Level Risk Assessment And Policy Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(02), August.
    4. Taljaard, Pieter R., 2003. "Econometric Estimation Of The Demand For Meat In South Africa," Master's Degree Theses 28066, University of the Free State, Department of Agricultural Economics.
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