IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/ej38-5-peters.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Achieving the Clean Power Plan 2030 CO2 Target with the New Normal in Natural Gas Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey C. Peters
  • Thomas W. Hertel

Abstract

The U.S. Clean Power Plan (CPP) seeks to reduce CO2 emissions from electric power by 32% from 2005 levels, in part, by adjusting the generation mix. Generating technologies can substitute via two distinct, but interdependent mechanisms: i) utilization - i.e. adjustment of operations of existing capacity and ii) expansion - i.e. decommissioning and construction of capacity. We develop a framework for analyzing these interdependent mechanisms, then construct and validate an empirical model of the U.S. electricity sector using recent data. Assuming current low gas prices persist, increasing utilization of gas (at the expense of higher-emitting coal) will drive higher returns to gas capacity. As a result, under our business-as-usual scenario for 2030 (no CPP) we project approximately 26% less CO2 emissions than 2005 levels, indicating that the CPP target could be met with only limited policy intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey C. Peters & Thomas W. Hertel, 2017. "Achieving the Clean Power Plan 2030 CO2 Target with the New Normal in Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej38-5-peters
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2977
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lion Hirth & Falko Ueckerdt & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "Why Wind Is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity," Working Papers 2014.39, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    3. Burtraw, Dallas & Woerman, Matt, 2013. "Technology Flexibility and Stringency for Greenhouse Gas Regulations," Discussion Papers dp-13-24, Resources For the Future.
    4. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    5. James B. Bushnell & Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel, 2017. "Strategic Policy Choice in State-Level Regulation: The EPA's Clean Power Plan," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 57-90, May.
    6. Arora, Vipin, 2014. "Estimates of the Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in the United States," MPRA Paper 54232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jean-Charles Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, Chris Bataille, and Frederic Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-12.
    8. Paul L. Joskow, 2011. "Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 238-241, May.
    9. Jean Château & Rob Dellink & Elisa Lanzi, 2014. "An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model: Version 3," OECD Environment Working Papers 65, OECD Publishing.
    10. Mark Horridge & Michael Jerie & Dean Mustakinov & Florian Schiffmann, 2019. "GEMPACK manual," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers gpman, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. Lanz, Bruno & Rausch, Sebastian, 2011. "General equilibrium, electricity generation technologies and the cost of carbon abatement: A structural sensitivity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1035-1047, September.
    12. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "US Natural Gas Price Determination: Fundamentals and the Development of Shale," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205788, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Catherine Hausman & Ryan Kellogg, 2015. "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 71-139.
    14. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    15. James A. Giesecke & Nhi Hoang Tran & Erwin L. Corong & Steven Jaffee, 2013. "Rice Land Designation Policy in Vietnam and the Implications of Policy Reform for Food Security and Economic Welfare," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 1202-1218, September.
    16. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2006. "The Displacement Effect of Labour‐Market Programs: MONASH Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 26-40, September.
    17. Maria Kozhevnikova & Ian Lange, 2009. "Determinants of Contract Duration: Further Evidence from Coal-Fired Power Plants," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(3), pages 217-229, May.
    18. Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
    19. Jeffrey C Peters, 2016. "The GTAP-Power Data Base: Disaggregating the Electricity Sector in the GTAP Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 209-250, June.
    20. Payne, James E., 2010. "A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 723-731, March.
    21. Cai, Yiyong & Arora, Vipin, 2015. "Disaggregating electricity generation technologies in CGE models: A revised technology bundle approach with an application to the U.S. Clean Power Plan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 543-555.
    22. Micaela Ponce & Anne Neumann, 2014. "Elasticities of Supply for the US Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1372, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    23. Stuermer, Martin & Schwerhoff, Gregor, 2013. "Technological change in resource extraction and endogenous growth," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 12/2013, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    24. Tom Wigley, 2011. "Coal to gas: the influence of methane leakage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 601-608, October.
    25. Stephen J. DeCanio, 2003. "Economic Models of Climate Change," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50946-7, Januario-.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey C Peters, 2016. "GTAP-E-Power: An Electricity-detailed Economy-wide Model," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 156-187, December.
    2. Simshauser, P., 2021. "Vulnerable households and fuel poverty: policy targeting efficiency in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2129, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Brown, Marilyn A. & Kim, Gyungwon & Smith, Alexander M. & Southworth, Katie, 2017. "Exploring the impact of energy efficiency as a carbon mitigation strategy in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 249-259.
    4. Simshauser, Paul, 2021. "Vulnerable households and fuel poverty: Measuring the efficiency of policy targeting in Queensland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Simshauser, Paul, 2018. "Garbage can theory and Australia's National Electricity Market: Decarbonisation in a hostile policy environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 697-713.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tapia-Ahumada, Karen & Octaviano, Claudia & Rausch, Sebastian & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio, 2015. "Modeling intermittent renewable electricity technologies in general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 242-262.
    2. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    3. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Electricity Transition in Kenya and Ghana: An Exploratory Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 78070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ikonnikova, Svetlana A. & del Carpio Neyra, Victor & Berdysheva, Sofia, 2022. "Investment choices and production dynamics: The role of price expectations, financial deficit, and production constraints," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Truong, Truong P. & Hamasaki, Hiroshi, 2021. "Technology substitution in the electricity sector - a top down approach with bottom up characteristics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Sexton, Steven & Eyer, Jonathan, 2016. "Leveling the playing field of transportation fuels: Accounting for indirect emissions of natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 21-31.
    7. Helgesen, Per Ivar & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2018. "From linking to integration of energy system models and computational general equilibrium models – Effects on equilibria and convergence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1218-1233.
    8. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    9. Martin T. Ross, Patrick T. Sullivan, Allen A. Fawcett, and Brooks M. Depro, 2014. "Investigating Technology Options for Climate Policies: Differentiated Roles in ADAGE," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    10. Sebastian Rausch and Valerie J. Karplus, 2014. "Markets versus Regulation: The Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of U.S. Climate Policy Proposals," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    11. Standardi, Gabriele & Cai, Yiyong & Yeh, Sonia, 2017. "Sensitivity of modeling results to technological and regional details: The case of Italy's carbon mitigation policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 116-128.
    12. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    13. Le Treut, Gaëlle & Lefèvre, Julien & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Xavier Labandeira, Pedro Linares and Miguel Rodriguez, 2009. "An Integrated Approach to Simulate the impacts of Carbon Emissions Trading Schemes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    15. Rausch, Sebastian & Mowers, Matthew, 2014. "Distributional and efficiency impacts of clean and renewable energy standards for electricity," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 556-585.
    16. Milad Maralani & Milad Maralani & Basil Sharp & Golbon Zakeri, 2016. "The Potential Impact of Industrial Energy Savings on The New Zealand Economy," EcoMod2016 9308, EcoMod.
    17. Stefan Nabernegg & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Fabian Wagner & Thomas Schinko & Janusz Cofala & Yadira Mori Clement, 2017. "The Deployment of Low Carbon Technologies in Energy Intensive Industries: A Macroeconomic Analysis for Europe, China and India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-26, March.
    18. Lanz, Bruno & Rausch, Sebastian, 2011. "General equilibrium, electricity generation technologies and the cost of carbon abatement: A structural sensitivity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1035-1047, September.
    19. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    20. Christenson, Dino P. & Goldfarb, Jillian L. & Kriner, Douglas L., 2017. "Costs, benefits, and the malleability of public support for “Fracking”," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 407-417.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej38-5-peters. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Williams (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.