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Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Fatih Karahan
  • Serdar Ozkan
  • Jae Song

Abstract

Drawing on administrative data from the Social Security Administration, we find that individuals that go through a long period of non-employment suffer large and long-term earnings losses (around 35-40 percent) compared to individuals with similar age and previous earnings histories. Importantly, these differences depend on past earnings, and are largest at the bottom and top of the earnings distribution. Focusing on workers that are employed 10 years after a period of long-term non-employment, we find much smaller earnings losses (8-10 percent). Furthermore, the large earnings losses of low-income individuals are almost entirely due to employment effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2017. "Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 369-373, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:5:p:369-73
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20171012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fatih Karahan & Jae Song & Serdar Ozkan, 2018. "Sources of Inequality in Earnings Growth Over the Life Cycle," 2018 Meeting Papers 313, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Filomena, Mattia & Picchio, Matteo, 2023. "You'll never walk alone: Unemployment, social networks and leisure activities," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1346, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2021. "Life-cycle welfare losses from rules-of-thumb asset allocation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2024. "Life-cycle risk-taking with personal disaster risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 378-396.
    4. Lous, Bjorn, 2020. "On free markets, income inequality, happiness and trust," Other publications TiSEM e2480eed-722b-4e2a-8e29-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    6. Mark Garmaise & Yaron Levi & Hanno Lustig, 2020. "Spending Less After (Seemingly) Bad News," NBER Working Papers 27010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Hospido, Laura & Ruggieri, Alessandro, 2023. "Dual returns to experience," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Oana IACOB PARGARU & Irina Elena PETRESCU & Radu Alexandru CHIOTAN & Ovidiu Andrei Cristian BUZOIANU & Otilia GANEA, 2023. "Unemployment In Romania In The Period 2010-2022," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(1), pages 678-683, November.
    10. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    11. Reto Foellmi & Isabel Z. Martínez, 2018. "Inequality in Switzerland: A Haven of Stability?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(02), pages 19-25, July.
    12. Frank T Denton & Byron G Spencer & Terry A Yip, 2019. "Age-Income Dynamics Over The Life Course: Cohort Transition Patterns In Relative Income Based On Canadian Tax Returns," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, McMaster University.
    13. Andreas Gulyas & Krzysztof Pytka, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement: A Machine-Learning Approach," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_131, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    14. repec:ces:ifofor:v:19:y:2018:i:2:p:19-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bjorn Lous & Johan Graafland, 2022. "Who Becomes Unhappy when Income Inequality Increases?," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 299-316, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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