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Citations for "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters"

by Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams

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  1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
  3. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Contributions of economists to the housing-price bubble," Working Papers, American University, Department of Economics 2011-03, American University, Department of Economics.
  5. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
  6. Péter Hudomiet & Robert J. Willis, 2012. "Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data," NBER Working Papers 18258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. João Valle e Azevedo, 2011. "Rational vs. professional forecasts," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Manski, Charles F. & Neri, Claudia, 2013. "First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 232-254.
  10. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  11. Xuguang Sheng & Jingyun Yang, 2013. "Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting 2013-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  12. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
  13. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2009. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," Discussion Papers, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics 09-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  14. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  15. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. García, Juan Angel & Manzanares, Andrés, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0836, European Central Bank.
  17. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2013. "Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments," MPRA Paper 45186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  19. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4824, The World Bank.
  20. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451.
  21. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  22. Dario Rukelj & Barbara Ulloa, 2011. "Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 140-170.
  23. Michael Pedersen, 2013. "What Affects the Predictions of Private Forecasters? The Role of Central Bank Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 686, Central Bank of Chile.
  24. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Glenn W. Harrison & : Morten I. Lau & : Daniel Read, 2013. "Revealed Preference and the Strength/Weight Hypothesis," Working Papers, Warwick Business School, Finance Group wpn13-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  25. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics 986, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  26. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers, Aboa Centre for Economics 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  27. Neri, Claudia, 2012. "Eliciting Beliefs in Continuous-Choice Games: A Double Auction Experiment," Economics Working Paper Series, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science 1207, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Dec 2012.
  28. Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2013. "Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1540, European Central Bank.
  29. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  30. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
  31. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  32. Bellemare, Charles & Bissonnette, Luc & Kröger, Sabine, 2007. "Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions: An Application to the Investment Game," IZA Discussion Papers 3121, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  33. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393.
  34. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2012. "Assessment of probabilistic forecasts: Proper scoring rules and moments," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 27(3), pages 115-132.
  35. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  36. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  37. Taro Ikeda, 2013. "Asymmetric forecasting and commitment policy in a robust control problem," Discussion Papers 1306, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  38. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications, Sciences Po info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  39. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.