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Citations for "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters"

by Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams

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  1. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393, April.
  2. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," Working Papers 1195, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Dario Rukelj & Dario Rukelj, 2011. "Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 140-170.
  5. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  7. Bellemare, Charles & Bissonnette, Luc & Kröger, Sabine, 2007. "Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions: An Application to the Investment Game," IZA Discussion Papers 3121, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. Xuguang Sheng & Jingyun Yang, 2013. "Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 2013-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  10. Neri, Claudia & Manski, Charles, 2012. "First- and Second-order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence," Economics Working Paper Series 1206, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  11. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, 01.
  12. Neri, Claudia, 2012. "Eliciting Beliefs in Continuous-Choice Games: A Double Auction Experiment," Economics Working Paper Series 1207, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Dec 2012.
  13. Taro Ikeda, 2013. "Asymmetric forecasting and commitment policy in a robust control problem," Discussion Papers 1306, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  14. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  15. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Contributions of economists to the housing-price bubble," Working Papers 2011-03, American University, Department of Economics.
  18. Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2013. "Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF," Working Paper Series 1540, European Central Bank.
  19. Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  20. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  21. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451.
  22. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  23. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  24. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2012. "Assessment of probabilistic forecasts: Proper scoring rules and moments," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 27(3), pages 115-132.
  25. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4824, The World Bank.
  26. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  27. Michael Pedersen, 2013. "What Affects the Predictions of Private Forecasters? The Role of Central Bank Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 686, Central Bank of Chile.
  28. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  29. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2013. "Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments," MPRA Paper 45186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Glenn W. Harrison & : Morten I. Lau & : Daniel Read, 2013. "Revealed Preference and the Strength/Weight Hypothesis," Working Papers wpn13-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  31. Péter Hudomiet & Robert J. Willis, 2012. "Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data," NBER Working Papers 18258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
  34. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  35. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  36. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  37. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
  38. García, Juan Angel & Manzanares, Andrés, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 0836, European Central Bank.
  39. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.