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Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts

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  • Michael B Devereux
  • Gregor W Smith
  • James Yetman

Abstract

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or Backus-Smith puzzle - has prompted research on risk-sharing indicators with incomplete asset markets. That research generally implies that the association holds in forecasts, rather than realizations. Using professional forecasts for 28 countries for 1990-2008 we find no such association, thus deepening the puzzle. Independent evidence on the weak link between forecasts for consumption and real interest rates suggests that the presence of 'hand-to-mouth' consumers may help to explain the evidence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 295.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:295

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Keywords: international risk sharing; Backus-Smith puzzle;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Consumption-Real Exchange Rate Anomaly," CEPR Discussion Papers 7452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lo Prete, Anna, 2013. "Sharing risk within and across countries: the role of labor market institutions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 449-461.
  3. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2013. "Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 197-215, April.
  4. Masashige Hamano, 2013. "The consumption-real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-01, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  5. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang & Wen Jen Tsay, 2010. "Home Bias in Currency Forecasts," Working Papers 272010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "The international risk-sharing puzzle is at business-cycle and lower frequency," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1212, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  8. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2014. "Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 174, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  10. Michael B. Devereux & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2011. "Consumption Risk-Sharing and the Real Exchange Rate: Why does the Nominal Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?," NBER Working Papers 17288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," CAMA Working Papers 2013-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Slacalek, Jiri, 2009. "Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries," Working Paper Series 1082, European Central Bank.

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