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The consumption-real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins

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  • Masashige Hamano

    ()
    (CREA, University of Luxembourg)

Abstract

This paper investigates a consumption-real exchange rate anomaly from the open macroeconomics literature known as the Backus-Smith puzzle . We both analytically and quantitatively examine how an expansion of trade along extensive margins can contribute to the puzzle's resolution. Our argument is based on 1) a wealth effect due to changes in the number of product varieties, 2) statistical inefficiency in measuring the number of product varieties, and 3) market incompleteness. Contrary to complete asset markets which, in general, feature overly strong risk sharing properties, changes in the number of product varieties under incomplete markets may produce a wealth effect under high trade elasticity. Since statistical agencies systematically fail to capture the welfare impact arising from that changes, data-consistent terms of trade and real exchange rates tend to appreciate due to this positive wealth effect. This provides a realistic correlation between data-consistent real exchange rates and consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg in its series CREA Discussion Paper Series with number 13-01.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:13-01

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Keywords: terms of trade; the Backus-Smith puzzle; firm entry;

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Michael Donadelli & Alessia Varani, 2014. "International Capital Markets Structure, Preferences and Puzzles: The US-China Case," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1362, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Masashige Hamano & Pierre M. Picard, 2013. "Extensive and intensive margins and the choice of exchange rate regimes," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-18, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  3. Hamano Masashige, 2012. "International equity and bond positions in a DSGE model with variety risk in consumption," CREA Discussion Paper Series 12-05, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.

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