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The International Risk-Sharing Puzzle is at Business Cycle and Lower Frequency

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  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Dedola, Luca
  • Viani, Francesca

Abstract

We decompose the Backus-Smith [1993] statistic --- a low or negative correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate at odds with a high degree of international risk sharing --- in its dynamic components at different frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques we show that, in most OECD countries, the dynamic correlation tends to be more negative, and significantly so, at business cycle or lower frequencies --- the appropriate frequencies for assessing the performance of international business cycle models. Theoretically, we show that the dynamic correlation predicted by standard open-economy models is the sum of two terms: a term constant across frequencies, which can be negative as a function of uninsurable risk; a term variable across frequencies, which in bond economies is necessarily positive, reflecting the insurance intertemporal trade provides against forecastable contingencies. We show that the main mechanisms proposed in the literature to account for the puzzle are consistent with the evidence.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8355.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8355

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Keywords: Incomplete markets; International Risk-Sharing; Spectral Analysis;

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References

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  1. Benigno, Gianluca & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008. "Consumption and real exchange rates with incomplete markets and non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 926-948, October.
  2. Michael B Devereux & Gregor W Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," BIS Working Papers 295, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2011. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, pages 403-466 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ravn, Morten O., 2001. "Consumption Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, April.
  9. Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2011. "Is China climbing up the quality ladder? Estimating cross country differences in product quality using Eurostat's COMEXT trade database," Working Paper Series 1310, European Central Bank.
  10. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Ghironi, Fabio & Melitz, Marc J, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heteroegenous Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  13. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci, 2008. "Productivity and Global Imbalances: The Role of Nontradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 312-325, June.
  14. Aitor Lacuesta & Sergio Puente & Ernesto Villanueva, 2011. "The schooling response to a sustained increase in low-skill wages: evidence from Spain 1989-2009," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1208, Banco de Espa�a.
  15. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2010. "Understanding the effect of productivity changes on international relative prices: the role of news shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 61, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Akkoyun, H. Cagri & Arslan, Yavuz & Kanik, Birol, 2013. "Housing prices and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-134.
  2. Julien Bengui & Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Capital Mobility and International Sharing of Cyclical Risk," NBER Working Papers 18372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and nontraded goods prices, and international risk sharing: an empirical investigation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1242, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Does financial integration affect real exchange rate volatility and cross-country equity market returns correlation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 206-220.
  5. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.
  6. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Trezzi, Riccardo, 2013. "A wavelet analysis of international risk-sharing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 330-333.
  8. Jean-François Rouillard, 2013. "International Risk Sharing and Land Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 13-02, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.

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