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The international risk-sharing puzzle is at business-cycle and lower frequency

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti

    (Cambridge University)

  • Luca Dedola

    (European Central Bank)

  • Francesca Viani

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We decompose the correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate into its dynamic components at different frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques we show that, at odds with a high degree of risk-sharing, in most OECD countries the dynamic correlation tends to be quite negative, and significantly so, at frequencies lower than two years —the appropriate frequencies for assessing the performance of international business cycle models. Theoretically, we show that the dynamic correlation over different frequencies predicted by standard open-economy models is the sum of two terms: a term constant across frequencies, which can be negative when uninsurable risk is large; and a term variable across frequencies, which in bond economies is necessarily positive, reflecting the insurance that intertemporal trade provides against forecastable contingencies. Numerical analysis suggests that leading mechanisms proposed by the literature to account for the puzzle are consistent with the evidence across the spectrum.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1212.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1212

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Keywords: Consumption-exchange rate anomaly; incomplete markets; frequency domain analysis;

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References

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  1. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
  4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2011. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, pages 403-466 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2004. " Consumption and Real Exchange Rates with Incomplete Markets and Non-traded Goods," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0405, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised Dec 2006.
  6. Kollmann, R., 1992. "Consumption, Real Exchange Rates and the Structure of International Asset Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9232, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2011. "Is China climbing up the quality ladder? Estimating cross country differences in product quality using Eurostat's COMEXT trade database," Working Paper Series 1310, European Central Bank.
  8. Fabio Ghironi & Marc Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," 2004 Meeting Papers 451, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  10. Ravn, Morten O., 2001. "Consumption Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
  12. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2010. "Understanding the effect of productivity changes on international relative prices: the role of news shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 61, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  13. Aitor Lacuesta & Sergio Puente & Ernesto Villanueva, 2011. "The schooling response to a sustained increase in low-skill wages: evidence from Spain 1989-2009," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1208, Banco de Espa�a.
  14. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci, 2008. "Productivity and Global Imbalances: The Role of Nontradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 312-325, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2011. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: an Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 17501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Julien Bengui & Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Capital Mobility and International Sharing of Cyclical Risk," NBER Working Papers 18372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jean-François Rouillard, 2013. "International Risk Sharing and Land Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 13-02, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
  5. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Does financial integration affect real exchange rate volatility and cross-country equity market returns correlation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 206-220.
  7. H. Cagri Akkoyun & Yavuz Arslan & Birol Kanik, 2012. "Housing Prices and Transaction Volume," Working Papers 1211, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Trezzi, Riccardo, 2013. "A wavelet analysis of international risk-sharing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 330-333.

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