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Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts

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  • Devereux, Michael B.
  • Smith, Gregor W.
  • Yetman, James

Abstract

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link — the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or Backus–Smith puzzle — has prompted research on risk-sharing indicators with incomplete asset markets. That research generally implies that the association holds in forecasts, rather than realizations. Using professional forecasts for 28 countries for 1990–2010 we find no such association, whether for floating nominal exchange rate regimes, fixed exchange rates, or common currencies, thus deepening the puzzle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 86 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 33-42

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:86:y:2012:i:1:p:33-42

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

Related research

Keywords: International risk sharing; Backus–Smith puzzle; Consumption/real exchange-rate anomaly;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Viani, Francesca, 2011. "The International Risk-Sharing Puzzle is at Business Cycle and Lower Frequency," CEPR Discussion Papers 8355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang & Wen Jen Tsay, 2010. "Home Bias in Currency Forecasts," Working Papers e07-18, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert Kollmann, 2010. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 41, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Lo Prete, Anna, 2013. "Sharing risk within and across countries: the role of labor market institutions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 449-461.
  6. Hamano, Masashige, 2013. "The consumption-real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 26-46.
  7. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2009. "Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200906, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  8. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  9. Michael B. Devereux & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2011. "Consumption Risk-Sharing and the Real Exchange Rate: Why does the Nominal Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?," NBER Working Papers 17288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," CAMA Working Papers 2013-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2013. "Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 197-215, April.
  12. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2014. "Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 174, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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