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The Curse of Irving Fisher (Professional Forecasters' Version)

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Author Info
Gregor W. Smith () (Queen's University)
James Yetman () (University of Hong Kong)

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Abstract

Dynamic Euler equations restrict multivariate forecasts. Thus a range of links between macroeconomic variables can be studied by seeing whether they hold within the multivariate predictions of professional forecasters. We illustrate this novel way of testing theory by studying the links between forecasts of U.S. nominal interest rates, inflation, and real consumption growth since 1981. By using forecast data for both returns and macroeconomic fundamentals, we use the complete cross-section of forecasts, rather than the median. The Survey of Professional Forecasters yields a three-dimensional panel, across quarters, forecasters, and forecast horizons. This approach yields 14727 observations, much greater than the 107 time series observations. The resulting precision reveals a significant, negative relationship between consumption growth and interest rates.

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File URL: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1144.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1144.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1144

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Related research
Keywords: forecast survey asset pricing Fisher effect

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  5. Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lloyd B. Thomas Jr., 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Pooling Forecasts in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 1129, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using Survey Data," Working Papers 200007, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 293-311, October.
  13. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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