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The International Risk-Sharing Puzzle is at Business Cycle and Lower Frequency

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Luca Dedola
  • Francesca Viani

Abstract

We decompose the Backus-Smith [1993] statistic -- a low or negative correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate at odds with a high degree of international risk sharing -- in its dynamic components at di¤erent frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques we show that, in most OECD countries, the dynamic correlation tends to be more negative, and signi.cantly so, at business cycle or lower frequencies -- the appropriate frequencies for assessing the performance of international business cycle models. Theoretically, we show that the dynamic correlation predicted by standard open-economy models is the sum of two terms: a term constant across frequencies, which can be negative as a function of uninsurable risk; a term variable across frequencies, which in bond economies is necessarily positive, reflecting the insurance intertemporal trade provides against forecastable contingencies. We show that the main mechanisms proposed in the literature to account for the puzzle are consistent with the evidence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2011/16.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2011/16

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Keywords: International Risk-Sharing; Incomplete markets; Spectral Analysis;

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References

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  1. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  2. Kollmann, R., 1992. "Consumption, Real Exchange Rates and the Structure of International Asset Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9232, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2011. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, pages 403-466 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci, 2008. "Productivity and Global Imbalances: The Role of Nontradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 312-325, June.
  5. Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2011. "Is China climbing up the quality ladder? Estimating cross country differences in product quality using Eurostat's COMEXT trade database," Working Paper Series 1310, European Central Bank.
  6. Aitor Lacuesta & Sergio Puente & Ernesto Villanueva, 2011. "The schooling response to a sustained increase in low-skill wages: evidence from spain 1989-2009," Banco de España Working Papers 1208, Banco de España.
  7. Croux, Christophe & Forni, M & Reichlin, L, 2001. "A measure of comovement for economic variables: Theory and empirics," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/99012, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
  8. Ghironi, Fabio & Melitz, Marc J, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heteroegenous Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Benigno, Gianluca & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2006. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates with Incomplete Markets and Non-Traded Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Michael B Devereux & Gregor W Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," BIS Working Papers 295, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Ravn, Morten O., 2001. "Consumption Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
  13. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  14. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2010. "Understanding the effect of productivity changes on international relative prices: the role of news shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 61, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  15. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403 - 466.
  2. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.

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