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Individuals' Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice

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  • Adeline Delavande
  • Susann Rohwedder

Abstract

Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning. To illuminate these issues, the authors present empirical evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Internet Survey and document systematic variation in respondents' uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits by individual characteristics. They find that respondents with higher levels of uncertainty about future benefits hold a smaller share of their wealth in stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2010. "Individuals' Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice," Working Papers WR-782, RAND Corporation.
    • Handle: RePEc:ran:wpaper:wr-782
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2020. "Maternal investments in children: the role of expected effort and returns," ISER Working Paper Series 2020-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. van Santen, Peter, 2016. "Uncertain pension income and household saving," Working Paper Series 330, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Tullio Jappelli & Immacolata Marino & Mario Padula, 2021. "Social Security Uncertainty and Demand for Retirement Saving," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 810-834, December.
    5. Peter van Santen, 2019. "Uncertain Pension Income and Household Saving," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(4), pages 908-929, December.
    6. de Bresser, Jochem & van Soest, Arthur, 2013. "Survey response in probabilistic questions and its impact on inference," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-84.
    7. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    8. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 637, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    10. Madeira, Carlos, 2020. "Learning your own ability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Patrick Moran & Martin Orquote Connell & Cormac Orquote Dea & Francesca Parodi, 2021. "Heterogeneity in Household Spending and Well-being around Retirement," Working Papers wp427, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    12. Federica Teppa & Susan Thorp & Hazel Bateman, 2015. "Family, friends and framing: A cross-country study of subjective survival expectations," DNB Working Papers 491, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Becker, Christoph & Duersch, Peter & Eife, Thomas, 2023. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: How the Response Scale Shapes Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0727, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    14. Rui Li & Jing Wu & Shuo Zhang & Siqing Zhang & Yuanyang Wu, 2023. "Social Endowment Insurance and Inequality of the Household Portfolio Choice: The Moderating Effect of Financial Literacy," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.
    15. Fang, H., 2016. "Insurance Markets for the Elderly," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 237-309, Elsevier.
    16. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2013. "Pension Wealth Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 1057-1085, December.
    17. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2022. "Maternal Investments in Children : The Role of Expected Effort and Returns," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1423, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    18. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 361-405, November.
    19. Okumura, Tsunao & Usui, Emiko, 2021. "Pension Expectations and Household Portfolio Choice of the Elderly in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 694, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    20. Tullio Jappelli & Immacolata Marino & Mario Padula, 2019. "Pension Uncertainty and Demand for Retirement Saving," CSEF Working Papers 526, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    21. Elisa Maria Maffioli & Wendy Prudhomme O’Meara & Elizabeth L. Turner & Manoj Mohanan, 2021. "Can individuals’ beliefs help us understand nonadherence to malaria test results? Evidence from rural Kenya," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 163-182, February.
    22. Junya Hamaaki, 2013. "The Pension System and Household Consumption and Saving Behavior," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 687-716, September.
    23. Atella, Vincenzo & Brunetti, Marianna & Maestas, Nicole, 2012. "Household portfolio choices, health status and health care systems: A cross-country analysis based on SHARE," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1320-1335.
    24. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
    25. Drerup, Tilman & Enke, Benjamin & von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin, 2017. "The precision of subjective data and the explanatory power of economic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 378-389.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; portfolio choice; subjective probabilities; uncertatinty; Health and Retirement Study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles

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