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Measuring Pension-benefit Expectations Probabilistically

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Author Info

  • Jeff Dominitz
  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

Research aiming to understand the impact of public and private pension plans on individual decision making has been hampered by a dearth of empirical evidence on benefit expectations. We review the occasional national surveys that have sought to measure pension-benefit expectations and describe our recent efforts to improve the measurement of US Social Security benefit expectations by elicitation of probabilistic expectations about well-defined outcomes. We document striking uncertainty and heterogeneity of beliefs about the long-term existence of the Social Security system and about the level of benefits should the system survive. In so doing, we highlight the additional information that is extracted using our probabilistic elicitation method as opposed to more traditional methods that only seek point forecasts. Copyright 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation 2006 CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEIS in its journal LABOUR.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 201-236

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Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:20:y:2006:i:2:p:201-236

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Cited by:
  1. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers 589, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  2. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2009. "Pension Risk, Retirement Saving and Insurance," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/18, European University Institute.
  3. Helen Levy & Kristin Seefeldt, 2008. "How Do Lower-Income Families Think about Retirement?," Working Papers wp195, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  4. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2010. "Individuals' Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice," Working Papers 782, RAND Corporation Publications Department.

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