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On the Impact of Fundamentals, Liquidity and Coordination on Market Stability

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Author Info
Francisco Peñaranda ()
Jón Daníelsson

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Abstract

Complex interactions between fundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets are succinctly modeled with co- ordination games. We propose a flexible framework to estimate such a model and use the efficient method of moments as estimation proce- dure. We illustrate the model by using exchange rates from the yen– dollar carry trade induced uncertainty in 1998, interest rate spreads and global market volatility. The model fits the data well, with ev- idence of low information disparities, the market is generally very deep, where global volatility is more important than fundamental un- certainty in the determination of liquidity. There is clear evidence of asymmetry between the buy and sell sides of the market.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1003.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1003

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Related research
Keywords: Carry trades currency crises efficient method of moments global games

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Christian Hellwig & Arijit Mukherji & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1995. "Can Speculative Trading Explain the Volume-Volatility Relation?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 379-96, October.
  3. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
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  6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alessandro Prati & Massimo Sbracia, 2002. "Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Nikola A. Tarashev, 2003. "Currency Crises and the Informational Role of Interest Rates," BIS Working Papers 135, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Simulated Score Methods and Indirect Inference for Continuous-time Models," Working Papers 02-09, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Dasgupta, Amil, 2007. "Coordination and delay in global games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 195-225, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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