Currency Crises and the Informational Role of Interest Rates
AbstractIn the late 1990s, Morris and Shin proposed a new theoretical framework of financial crises, which generalised traditional models of strategic complementarity and self-fulfilling beliefs by incorporating idiosyncratic uncertainty about the state. The innovative feature of their framework is expressed by its capacity to account for seemingly unwarranted speculative attacks under equilibrium uniqueness and to thus place policy analysis on a firm footing. The macroeconomic implications of the framework have been questioned, however, because it ignores the issue of information aggregation via market prices. Motivated by such criticism, this paper modifies the Morris-Shin setup by allowing prices to adjust freely to market conditions. It is then shown that all of the appealing characteristics of that setup are preserved even when public information has an endogenously disseminated component. Moreover, the prevailing weak form of strategic complementarity, in conjunction with heterogeneity of private agents' information sets, leads to a less restrictive prerequisite for equilibrium uniqueness. Further, the paper's model delivers new policy implications and suggests a change in the approach of structural currency crisis empirical analysis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 135.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
financial crises; currency crises;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sanford Grossman, 1989. "The Informational Role of Prices," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572141.
- Christian Hellwig & Arijit Mukherji & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005.
"Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
11191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
- Jón Daníelsson & Francisco Peñaranda, 2011.
"On The Impact Of Fundamentals, Liquidity, And Coordination On Market Stability,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(3), pages 621-638, 08.
- Francisco Penaranda & Jon Danielsson, 2007. "On the Impact of Fundamentals, Liquidity and Coordination on Market Stability," FMG Discussion Papers dp586, Financial Markets Group.
- Francisco Peñaranda & Jón Daníelsson, 2007. "On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability," Economics Working Papers 1003, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2010.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Endogenous Public Signals and Coordination," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001309, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates (A.E.R., December 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 338, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2005.
"Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks,"
122247000000000790, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Guimaraes, Bernardo & Morris, Stephen, 2007. "Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2205-2230, November.
- Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2006. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001115, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Stephen Morris & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2004. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm424, Yale School of Management.
- Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2003.
"Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1433R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2004.
- Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2003. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1433, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Sanne Zwart, 2005. "Liquidity runs with endogenous information acquisition," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/18, European University Institute.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.