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L'avenir des retraites en France: Evalutation de l'impact des réformes de 1993 et de 2033 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Artémis

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  • Anne-Gisèle Privat

Abstract

L'objectif de la thèse est de donner une mesure des conséquences à moyen et long terme de la réforme des retraites du secteur privé, à législation inchangée, et d'effectuer une analyse comparative des effets des réformes de 1993 et 2003 sur le niveau et les distributions des retraites futures à l'horizon 2030. A cette fin, nous construisons et utilisons un modèle de micro-simulation, le modèle Artèmis (analyse des retraites du secteur privé par micro-simulation), basé sur le fichier des assurés au régime général d'assurance vieillesse des travailleurs salariés (CNAV). Ce régime couvre les salariés du secteur privé, soit prés des deux tiers de la population active française. Cette thèse est organisée en deux grandes parties. Dans la première partie intitulée "microsimulation et retraites du régime général", nous présentons l'intérêt de la microsimulation pour l'étude des retraites du régime général sur le long terme, ainsi que les grandes caractéristiques de ce régime. La seconde partie sur "le modèle de microsimulation artémis et ses résultats" décrit le modèle, puis présente les simulations des retraites de droit propre à l'horizon 2030 et leur comparaison aux autres sources d'évaluation disponibles. Nous nous intéressons aux parcours des générations 1935 à 1970. Nous analysons les effets de ces réformes sur les dépenses totales, ainsi que leurs conséquences redistributives, en tenant compte des évolutions individuelles de carrière. En effet, la politique de retraire, comme toute politique sociale, repose sur des principes combinant efficacité économique et redistribution.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4.

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Length: 294 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4

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Keywords: Sciences économique; spécialisation démographie économique;

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