Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

L'avenir des retraites en France: Evalutation de l'impact des réformes de 1993 et de 2033 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Artémis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Anne-Gisèle Privat

Abstract

L'objectif de la thèse est de donner une mesure des conséquences à moyen et long terme de la réforme des retraites du secteur privé, à législation inchangée, et d'effectuer une analyse comparative des effets des réformes de 1993 et 2003 sur le niveau et les distributions des retraites futures à l'horizon 2030. A cette fin, nous construisons et utilisons un modèle de micro-simulation, le modèle Artèmis (analyse des retraites du secteur privé par micro-simulation), basé sur le fichier des assurés au régime général d'assurance vieillesse des travailleurs salariés (CNAV). Ce régime couvre les salariés du secteur privé, soit prés des deux tiers de la population active française. Cette thèse est organisée en deux grandes parties. Dans la première partie intitulée "microsimulation et retraites du régime général", nous présentons l'intérêt de la microsimulation pour l'étude des retraites du régime général sur le long terme, ainsi que les grandes caractéristiques de ce régime. La seconde partie sur "le modèle de microsimulation artémis et ses résultats" décrit le modèle, puis présente les simulations des retraites de droit propre à l'horizon 2030 et leur comparaison aux autres sources d'évaluation disponibles. Nous nous intéressons aux parcours des générations 1935 à 1970. Nous analysons les effets de ces réformes sur les dépenses totales, ainsi que leurs conséquences redistributives, en tenant compte des évolutions individuelles de carrière. En effet, la politique de retraire, comme toute politique sociale, repose sur des principes combinant efficacité économique et redistribution.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4/resources/anne-gisele-privat-demo-2005.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4.

as in new window
Length: 294 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Sciences économique; spécialisation démographie économique;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
  2. Bourguignon, F. & O'Donoghue, C. & Sastre-Descals, J. & Spadaro, A. & Utili, F., 1997. "Eur 3: A Prototype European Tax-Benefit Model," DELTA Working Papers 97-30, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  3. Abowd, John M. & Kramarz, Francis & Margolis, David N. & Troske, Kenneth R., 2001. "The Relative Importance of Employer and Employee Effects on Compensation: A Comparison of France and the United States," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
  4. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
  5. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1.
  8. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
  9. Laurent Caussat, 1996. "Retraite et correction des aléas de carrière," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 291(1), pages 185-201.
  10. Gerard Cornilleau & Henri Sterdyniak, 2003. "Réforme des retraites: tout miser sur l’allongement de la durée de cotisation?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3968, Sciences Po.
  11. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-38, May.
  12. Dominique Meurs & Sophie Ponthieux, 2000. "Une mesure de la discrimination dans l'écart de salaire entre hommes et femmes," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 337(1), pages 135-158.
  13. Nelissen, Jan H. M., 1998. "Annual versus lifetime income redistribution by social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 223-249, May.
  14. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
  15. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1988. "Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 2686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Didier Blanchet & Florence Legros, 2002. "France: The Difficult Path to Consensual Reforms," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 109-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Kessler, D. & Masson, A., 1994. "Redistribution et politique sociale: La double dimension de l'age et de la generation," Papers 94-23, Laval - Laboratoire Econometrie.
  18. B Bell & Stephen Nickell & Glenda Quintini, 2000. "Wage Equations, Wage Curves and All That," CEP Discussion Papers dp0472, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  19. Stéfan Lollivier, 1994. "L'évolution du marché du travail dans les années quatre-vingt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 429-441.
  20. Éric Maurin & Dominique Goux, 1994. "Éducation, expérience et salaire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 116(5), pages 155-178.
  21. Thierry Debrand & Anne-Gisèle Privat, 2004. "Salaires individuels et évolutions macroéconomiques en France," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 89(2), pages 271-301.
  22. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  23. Patrick Werquin & Xavier Joutard, 1992. "Les déterminants individuels de la durée de chômage : de l'intérêt de distinguer les emplois stables des emplois précaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 102(1), pages 143-156.
  24. Denis FOUGERE & Thierry KAMIONKA, 1992. "Un modéle markovien du marché du travail," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 27, pages 149-188.
  25. E. Walraet & A. Vincent, 2002. "Intragenerational distributional analysis in the french private sector pension scheme - A microsimulation approach," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2002-14, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  26. Michel Gollac & Christian Baudelot, 1997. "Le salaire du trentenaire : question d'âge ou de génération ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 304(1), pages 17-35.
  27. Robert Holzmann & Mitchell Orenstein & Michal Rutkowski, 2003. "Pension Reform in Europe : Process and Progress," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15132, October.
  28. R. Mahieu & B. Sédillot, 2000. "Microsimulations of the retirement decision: a supply side approach," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2000-07, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  29. Nelissen, Jan H. M. & Institute, Economic, 1999. "A Payable Alternative for the Dutch Old-Age Pension System," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 275-282, March.
  30. Jacob Mincer & Solomon Polachek, 1974. "Family Investments in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," NBER Chapters, in: Marriage, Family, Human Capital, and Fertility, pages 76-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Didier Blanchet & Louis-Paul Pele, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in France," NBER Working Papers 6214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Didier Blanchet & Jean-Marie Chanut, 1998. "Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulation," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 315(1), pages 95-106.
  33. Didier Blanchet, 1995. "Equité, efficacité et fonctions assurantielles de la retraite et de la préretraite," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 993-1002.
  34. Blanchard, O & Katz, L, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Working papers 96-29, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  35. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Firm-specific Capital and Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1246-60, December.
  36. Didier Blanchet & Sophie Pennée, 1996. "Hausse de l'activité féminine : quels liens avec l'évolution de la fécondité ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 300(1), pages 95-104.
  37. N. Anders Klevmarken, 1997. "Behavioral Modeling in Micro Simulation Models. A Survey," Working Paper Series 1997:31, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  38. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
  39. Martin Feldstein & Horst Siebert, 2002. "Social Security Pension Reform in Europe," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld02-2.
  40. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Age and Experience Profiles of Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 64-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Stéfan Lollivier, 1994. "L'évolution du marché du travail dans les années quatre-vingt," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 429-441.
  42. Leandro Arozamena & Mário Centeno, 2001. "Tenure, Business Cycle and the Wage-Setting Process," Working Papers w200108, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  43. Sumner, Scott & Silver, Stephen, 1989. "Real Wages, Employment, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 706-20, June.
  44. Imbens, G.W. & Lancaster, T., 1991. "Combining Micro and Macro Data in Microeconometric Models," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1578, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  45. Laurent Toulemon & Magali Mazuy, 2001. "Cinq projections de fécondité fondées sur une hypothèse de stabilité des comportements," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 56(4), pages 647-656.
  46. Dekkers, Gijs J M & Nelissen, Jan H M & Verbon, Harrie A A, 1995. "Intergenerational Equity and Pension Reform: The Case of the Netherlands," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(2), pages 224-45.
  47. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-44, December.
  48. Sophie Pennec, 1993. "Le passage à la retraite d'une génération féminine : une projection par simulation individuelle," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 48(3), pages 655-682.
  49. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Incomplete panels and selection bias: A survey," Discussion Paper 1992-7, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  50. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
  51. Ronan Mahieu & Carole Bonnet, 2000. "Taux de rendement interne par génération des régimes obligatoires de retraite. Calcul à l'aide d'un modèle de microsimulation dynamique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 77-95.
  52. Holly Sutherland, 1998. "Les modèles statiques de microsimulation en Europe dans les années 90," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 315(1), pages 35-50.
  53. Jacob Mincer & Solomon Polacheck, 1974. "Family Investments in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 397-431 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  55. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December.
  56. Patrick Sevestre & Yves Guillotin, 1994. "Estimations de fonctions de gains sur données de panel : endogéneité du capital humain et effets de la sélection," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 116(5), pages 119-135.
  57. Christian Baudelot & Michel Glaude, 1989. "Les diplômes se dévaluent-ils en se multipliant ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 225(1), pages 3-16.
  58. Solon, Gary & Barsky, Robert & Parker, Jonathan A, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, February.
  59. François Legendre, 2004. "Micro-simulation et évaluation des politiques économiques et sociale : un panorama des développements récents en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(1), pages 17-53.
  60. Michel Barge & Jean-François Payen, 1981. "Vieillissement et salaire : une optique individuelle," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 139(1), pages 3-16.
  61. Geary, Patrick T & Kennan, John, 1982. "The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 854-71, August.
  62. Madsen, Jakob B, 1998. "New Keynesian versus New Classical Theories of Aggregate Supply: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 273-93, August.
  63. Disney, Richard, 2000. "Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What Are the Reform Options?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F1-23, February.
  64. Bils, Mark J, 1985. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 666-89, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat214kj4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Spire @ Sciences Po Library).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.