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Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement

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Author Info
James H. Stock
David A. Wise

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Abstract

The paper develops a model of retirement based on the option value of continuing to work. Continuing to work maintains the option of retiring on more advantageous terms later. The model is used to estimate the effects on retirement of firm pension plan provisions. Typical defined benefit pension plans in the United States provide very substantial incentives to remain with the firm until some age, often the early retirement age, and then a strong incentive to leave the firm thereafter. (This may be a major reason for the rapidly declining labor force participation rates of older workers in the United States.) The model fits firm retirement data very well; it captures very closely the sharp discontinuous jumps in retirement rates at specific ages. The model is used to simulate the effect on retirement of potential changes in pension plan provisions. Increasing the age of early retirement from 55 to 60, for example, would reduce firm departure rates between ages 50 and 59 by almost forty percent.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2686.

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Date of creation: Aug 1988
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2686

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Dissaving after Retirement: Testing the Pure Life Cycle Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 237-280 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1980. "Discontinuous Budget Constraints and Estimation: The Demand for Housing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 75-96, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1986. "A Structural Retirement Model," NBER Working Papers 1237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Douglas W. Phillips & David A. Wise, 1987. "Military versus Civilian Pay: A Descriptive Discussion," NBER Chapters, in: Public Sector Payrolls, pages 19-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael D. Hurd & John B. Shoven, 1982. "The Economic Status of the Elderly," NBER Working Papers 0914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1989. "Aging, Moving, and Housing Wealth," NBER Working Papers 2324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Howard L. Frant & Herman B. Leonard, 1987. "Promise Them Anything: The Incentive Structures of Local Public Pension Plans," NBER Chapters, in: Public Sector Payrolls, pages 215-242 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael D. Hurd & Michael J. Boskin, 1985. "The Effect of Social Security on Retirement in the Early 1970s," NBER Working Papers 0659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Stock, J.H. & Wise, D.A., 1988. "The Pension Inducement To Retire: An Option Value Analysis," Papers e-88-29, Stanford - Hoover Institution.
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  11. Diamond, P. A. & Hausman, J. A., 1984. "Individual retirement and savings behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 81-114. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Edward P. Lazear, 1983. "Pensions as Severance Pay," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 57-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  13. Burtless, Gary, 1986. "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 781-805, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Olivia S. Mitchell & Gary S. Fields, 1981. "The Effects of Pensions and Earnings on Retirement: A Review Essay," NBER Working Papers 0772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jonathan Feinstein & Daniel McFadden, 1987. "The Dynamics of Housing Demand by the Elderly: Wealth, Cash Flow, and Demographic Effects," NBER Working Papers 2471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Burtless, Gary & Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "The Effect of Taxation on Labor Supply: Evaluating the Gary Negative Income Tax Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1103-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 1986. "A Structural Retirement Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 555-84, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1985. "Moving and Housing Expenditure: Transaction Costs and Disequilibrium," NBER Working Papers 1012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Jeremy I. Bulow, 1981. "Early Retirement Pension Benefits," NBER Working Papers 0654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & David A. Wise, 1987. "Labor Compensation and the Structure of Private Pension Plans: Evidencefor Contractual Versus Spot Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 1290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. John Rust, 1987. "A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior," NBER Working Papers 2470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jerry A. Hausman & David A. Wise, 1985. "Social Security, Health Status, and Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, pages 159-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  23. Richard V. Burkhauser, 1980. "The early acceptance of social security: An asset maximization approach," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 33(4), pages 484-492, July.
  24. Alan S. Blinder & Roger H. Gordon & Donald E. Wise, 1981. "Reconsidering the Work Disincentive Effects of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 0562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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