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A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior

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Author Info
John Rust

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Abstract

This paper formulates a model of retirement behavior based on the solution to a stochastic dynamic programming problem. The workers objective is to maximize expected discounted utility over his remaining lifetime. At each time period the worker chooses how much to consume and whether to work full-time, part-time, or exit the labor force. The model accounts for the sequential nature f the retirement decision problem, and the role of expectations of uncertain future variables such as the worker's future lifespan, health status, marital and family status, employment status, as well as earnings from employment, assets, and social security retirement, disability and medicare payments. This paper applies a "nested fixed point" algorithm that converts the dynamic programming problem into the problem of repeatedly recomputing the fixed point to a contraction mapping operator as a subroutine of a standard nonlinear maximum likelihood program. The goal of the paper is to demonstrate that a fairly complex and realistic formulation of the retirement problem can be estimated using this algorithm and a current generation supercomputer, the Cray-2.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2470.

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Date of creation: Dec 1987
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Publication status: published as The Economics of Aging, ed. by David Wise, University of Chicago Press, March 1990.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2470

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  1. Richard V. Burkhauser & Timothy M. Smeeding, 2000. "Microdata Panel Data and Public Policy: National and Cross-National Perspectives," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 23, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Euwals, Rob & van Vuuren, Daniel & Wolthoff, Ronald, 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands - Evidence from a Policy Reform," CEPR Discussion Papers 5596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gulcin Gumus, 2003. "Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 941, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. David A. Wise & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1990. "Aging and Labor Force Participation: A Review of Trends and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 3420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Public Economics 9406005, EconWPA, revised 06 Jul 1994. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Richard V. Burkhauser & J. S. Butler & Gulcin Gumus, 2004. "Dynamic programming model estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance application timing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 671-685. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arjan Heyma, 2004. "A structural dynamic analysis of retirement behaviour in the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 739-759. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Job Loss and Retirement Behavior of Older Men," Departmental Working Papers 199823, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael D. Hurd, 1993. "The Effect of Labor Market Rigidities on the Labor Force Behavior of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Isao Ohashi, 2004. "Wages, Hours of Work and Job Satisfaction of the Elderly," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-40, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Grzegorz Kula, 2003. "Retirement with Perfect Insurance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-097/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alan L. Gustman & F. Thomas Juster, 1995. "Income and Wealth of Older American Households: Modeling Issues for Public Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2002. "Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble," NBER Working Papers 9404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Zhiyang Jia, 2005. "Retirement Behavior of Working Couples in Norway. A Dynamic Programming Approach," Discussion Papers 405, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  15. Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "New Evidence on Pensions, Social Security, and the Timing of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 6534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Employment and Retirement Following a Late-Career Job Loss," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 211-216, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Debra Sabatini Dwyer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1998. "Health Problems as Determinants of Retirement: Are Self-Rated Measures Endogenous?," NBER Working Papers 6503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 2001. "Retirement Incentives and Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Pension Plan Provisions and Retirement: Men & Women, Medicare, and Models," NBER Working Papers 4201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Federico Biagi & Danilo Cavapozzi & Raffaele Miniaci, 2007. "Technology, Skills and Retirement," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0042, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  21. Anne Møller Danø & Mette Ejrnæs & Leif Husted, 2004. "Do Single Women Value Early Retirement more than Single Men?," CAM Working Papers 2004-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Hugo Benitez-Silva, . "Micro Determinants of Labor Force Status Among Older Americans," Department of Economics Working Papers 00-07, SUNY-Stony Brook, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  23. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1988. "Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 2686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1995. "Why are Retirement Rates So High at Age 65?," NBER Working Papers 5190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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