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'Precautionary' Saving Revisited: Social Security, Individual Welfare, and the Capital Stock

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Author Info
R. Glenn Hubbard

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Abstract

This paper focuses on precautionary saving against uncertain longevity and on the annuity insurance aspects of social security within the life-cycle framework. The principal findings are three. First, the evolution of social security is reviewed in response to missing markets for providing insurance for consumption in the face of lifetime uncertainty. A simple life-cycle model is used to show that even an actuarially fair, fully funded social security system can reducenational saving. Second, to the extent that the introduction of social security reduces the size of accidental bequests, the net effect on the consumption of subsequent generations is diminished. Finally,consideration of the welfare gains from compulsory social security requires an examination of the tradeoff between the benefits to early participants from access to the annuities and the costs to generations that follow of a lower capital stock. Across a range of parameter values, the partial equilibrium impact of social security on consumptionis reversed. The introduction of an explicit bequest motive ivitigates both the initial impact of social security on saving and the long-run welfare loss from the introduction of social security.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1430.

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Date of creation: Aug 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1430

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Mervyn A. King & Louis Dicks-Mireaux, 1982. "Asset Holdings and the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Evans, Owen J, 1983. "Tax Policy, the Interest Elasticity of Saving, and Capital Accumulation: Numerical Analysis of Theoretical Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 398-410, June.
  3. Wilson, Charles, 1977. "A model of insurance markets with incomplete information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 167-207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Seidman, Laurence S, 1984. "Conversion to a Consumption Tax: The Transition in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 247-67, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Atkinson, A B, 1971. "Capital Taxes, the Redistribution of Wealth and Individual Savings," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(114), pages 209-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 0445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1979. "Social Security and Equilibrium Capital Intensity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 233-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-77, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Spivak, Avia, 1981. "The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 372-91, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Eckstein, Zvi & Eichenbaum, Martin & Peled, Dan, 1985. "Uncertain lifetimes and the welfare enhancing properties of annuity markets and social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 303-326, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "Capital Taxation and Accumulation in a Life Cycle Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 533-44, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1983. "National Savings, Economic Welfare, and the Structure of Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 459-498 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Michael D. Hurd & John B. Shoven, 1986. "The Distributional Impact of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 1155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Diamond, P. A., 1977. "A framework for social security analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 275-298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 630-49, November.
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  18. Mirer, Thad W, 1979. "The Wealth-Age Relation among the Aged," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 435-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. White, Betsy Buttrill, 1978. "Empirical Tests of the Life Cycle Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 547-60, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John B. Shoven & Avia Spivak, 1987. "Annuity Markets, Savings, and the Capital Stock," NBER Working Papers 1250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Marjorie A. Flavin, 1984. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," NBER Working Papers 1341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Alan S. Blinder & Roger H. Gordon & Donald E. Wise, 1981. "Social Security, Bequests, and the Life Cycle Theory of Saving: Cross-Sectional Tests," NBER Working Papers 0619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. King, M A & Dicks-Mireaux, L-D L, 1982. "Asset Holdings and the Life-Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 247-67, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Martin Feldstein & Anthony J. Pellechio, 1980. "Social Security and Household Wealth Accumulation: New Microeconomic Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Sheshinski, Eytan & Weiss, Yoram, 1981. "Uncertainty and Optimal Social Security Systems," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 189-206, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1979. "Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 396-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Diamond, P. A. & Hausman, J. A., 1984. "Individual retirement and savings behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 81-114. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie & Alan J. Marcus, 1984. "Pension Plan Integration as Insurance Against Social Security Risk," NBER Working Papers 1370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Feldstein, 1989. "Should Social Security Be Means Tested?," NBER Working Papers 1775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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