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Social Security and Individual Welfare: Precautionary Saving, LiquidityConstraints, and the Payroll Tax

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R. Glenn Hubbard
Kenneth L. Judd

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Abstract

Recent advances in the examination of efficiency gains from dynamic tax reforms have used simulation models to isolate intragenerational and/or intergenerational effects. Important considerations having to do with uncertainty or capital market imperfections are frequently missing from such a framework. In this paper, we focus on the welfare gains from introducing social security retirement annuities, given lifetime uncertainty and borrowing restrictions.Our principal findings are four. First, given the considerations mentioned above, "precautionary saving" exceeds life-cycle saving (that would have taken place in the absence of lifetime uncertainty), lending further support to the notion that the perfect-certainty version of the life-cycle model provides an inadequate explanation of observed saving behavior. Second, the introduction of an actuarially fair social security system leads to a significant partial equilibrium increase in lifetime consumption and welfare, accompanied by a reduction in the capital stock.The increase in lifetime welfare is reduced, however,and in many cases eliminated, when borrowing restrictions are imposed.Third, extending the model to general equilibrium, we find that the partial equilibrium gains in lifetime welfare from participation in social security are offset by the interaction of higher steady-state interest rates and binding liquidity constraints. Finally, replacing the proportional payroll tax with a progressive tax (essentially a linear tax with an exemption), we show that age-specific tax schemes can restore much of the potential gain from introducing social security.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1736.

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Date of creation: Oct 1987
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1736

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  1. Jonathan Gruber & Aaron Yelowitz, 1997. "Public Health Insurance and Private Savings," NBER Working Papers 6041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Joon-Ho Hahm, 1999. "Consumption Growth, Income Growth And Earnings Uncertainity: Simple Cross-Country Evidence," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 39-58, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Luisa Fuster, 1997. "Is Altruism Important for Understanding the Long-Run Effects of Social Security?," Economics Working Papers 234, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1987. "Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption, and Precautionary Savings," NBER Working Papers 2336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. J. C. Parra & M. Huggett, 2005. "Quantifying the Inefficiency of the US Social Security System," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 70, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Carol C. Bertaut & Michael Haliassos, 1996. "Precautionary Portfolio Behavior from a Life-Cycle Perspective," Finance 9604001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Paul Hiebert & Massimo Rostagno & Javier J. Perez, 2002. "Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation," Working Paper Series 189, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hénin, Pierre-Yves & Weitzenblum, Thomas, 2003. "Redistribution through alternative pension reforms: A life-cycle analysis on French occupational groups," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0307, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robin Boadway & David Wildasin, 1994. "Taxation and savings: a survey," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 19-63, August. [Downloadable!]
  11. Patrick Honohan, 1995. "The Impact of Financial and Fiscal Policies on Saving," Papers WP059, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  12. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines, 1994. "The effect of tax-favored retirement accounts on capital accumulation and welfare," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 92, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Miguel Angel López García, 1991. "Sobre la reforma de la seguridad social: ¿capitalización o fondos de capital?," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(3), pages 505-530, September. [Downloadable!]
  14. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1987. "Finite Lifetimes, Borrowing Constraints, and Short-Run Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 2158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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