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On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

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Author Info
Kevin Alavy (Initiative Futures)
Alison Gaskell (Initiative Futures)
Stephanie Leach () (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College)
Stefan Szymanski () (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College)

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the demand for English football on television and outcome uncertainty. It tests the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis by using minute-by-minute television viewership figures which avoids the problems encountered when estimating demand using match attendance. We find that although uncertainty matters, it is the progression of the match which drives viewership and as a draw looks increasingly likely, viewers are likely to switch channels. Games that end in victories have a higher average viewership than games that end in stalemates.

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File URL: http://www.holycross.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/spe/Szymanski-etal_Initiative.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Association of Sports Economists in its series Working Papers with number 0631.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:spe:wpaper:0631

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Related research
Keywords: competitive balance; sports leagues; football; soccer; television;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cain, Michael & Law, David & Peel, David, 2000. "The Favourite-Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football Betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David Forrest & Rob Simmons & Stefan Szymanski, 2004. "Broadcasting, Attendance and the Inefficiency of Cartels," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 243-265, 05. [Downloadable!]
  4. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-33, August.
  5. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
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  7. Falter, J.-M. & Perignon, C., 2000. "Demand for Football and Intra-Match Winning Probability: an Essay on the Glorious Uncertainty of Sports," University of Geneva Economics Working Papers 00.04, University of Geneva, Department of Political Economy.
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  9. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Falter, Jean-Marc & Perignon, Christophe, 2000. "Demand for Football and Intramatch Winning Probability: An Essay on the Glorious Uncertainty of Sports," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1757-65, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Hynds, Michael & Smith, Ian, 1994. "The Demand for Test Match Cricket," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(7), pages 103-06, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Georg Stadtmann & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2002. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 101-112. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Putsis, William P, Jr & Sen, Subrata K, 2000. "Should NFL Blackouts Be Banned?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1495-1507, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-49, August.
  16. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-31.
  17. Kanazawa, Mark T & Funk, Jonas P, 2001. "Racial Discrimination in Professional Basketball: Evidence from Nielsen Ratings," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 599-608, October.
  18. Hausman, Jerry A & Leonard, Gregory K, 1997. "Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic Value and Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(4), pages 586-624, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng., 1980. "Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components," Working Papers 336, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rob Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2007. "A tale of two audiences: spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Working Papers 005289, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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