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Outcome uncertainty and the couch potato audience

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  • B Buraimo
  • D Forrest
  • R Simmons

Abstract

Previous studies of attendance demand for professional team sports have failed to yield clear- cut findings on the importance of outcome uncertainty to consumers. But potentially fewer problems should arise in examining the link between outcome uncertainty and demand in the television market for team sports, which in the case of English Premier League football is in fact a more important component in total club revenue. This study models both the choice of which games to show and the size of audience attracted by each game, exploiting data on audience sizes for games between 1993 and 2002. We propose a new measure of match outcome uncertainty and, from our results, both the broadcaster and the audience appear interested in competitive balance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department in its series Working Papers with number 542822.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:542822

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  1. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
  2. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-98, June.
  3. Cave, Martin & Crandall, Robert W, 2001. "Sports Rights and the Broadcast Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F4-26, February.
  4. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Stadtmann, Georg, 1999. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-46, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-31.
  6. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, 04.
  7. Hausman, Jerry A & Leonard, Gregory K, 1997. "Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic Value and Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(4), pages 586-624, October.
  8. Andrew Welki & Thomas Zlatoper, 1999. "U.S. professional football game-day attendance," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 285-298, September.
  9. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith, 1999. "Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(4), pages 493-521, October.
  10. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
  11. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-33, August.
  12. Daniel, Rascher, 1999. "A Test of the Optimal Positive Production Network Externality in Major League Baseball," MPRA Paper 25832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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