Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches
AbstractThis paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 61.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
playoff uncertainty; match uncertainty; sports league attendance; Australian National Rugby League; fixed effects estimation;
Other versions of this item:
- Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2012. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 262-277, 06.
- Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2010. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," Working Papers 1007, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2010.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
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