IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v14y2013i4p341-367.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in European Professional Football

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Pawlowski

Abstract

Previous research based on revealed preferences cannot assess whether (increasingly imbalanced) football competitions might be at risk of moving into territory where consumer demand will fall off as suggested by the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. Therefore, this article provides a subsequent examination of the relationship between perceived balance (in a number of dimensions) and intention to consume based on a stated preference approach in Germany. The estimated demand functions reveal that around 70% of fans care about competitive balance in the German Bundesliga but the league is not close to any tipping point at present.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Pawlowski, 2013. "Testing the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in European Professional Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 341-367, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:14:y:2013:i:4:p:341-367
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002513496011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1527002513496011
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1527002513496011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. M. Dobson & J. A. Goddard, 1996. "The Demand for Football in the Regions of England and Wales," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 443-453.
    2. Walter C. Neale, 1964. "The Peculiar Economics of Professional Sports," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 78(1), pages 1-14.
    3. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    4. Babatunde Buraimo, 2008. "Stadium attendance and television audience demand in English league football," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 513-523.
    5. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 9, pages 182-201, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 242-242.
    7. Ramón Flores & David Forrest & J. D. Tena, 2010. "Impact on Competitive Balance from Allowing Foreign Players in a Sports League: Evidence from European Soccer," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 546-557, November.
    8. repec:fth:geneec:00.04 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tim Pawlowski & Christoph Breuer & Arnd Hovemann, 2010. "Top Clubs’ Performance and the Competitive Situation in European Domestic Football Competitions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 186-202, April.
    10. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-198, June.
    11. Jean-Marc Falter & Christophe Perignon, 2000. "Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1757-1765.
    12. Jaume García & Plácido Rodríguez, 2002. "The Determinants of Football Match Attendance Revisited," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 18-38, February.
    13. David Peel & Dennis Thomas, 1996. "Attendance demand: an investigation of repeat fixtures," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 391-394.
    14. R. A. Hart & J. Hutton & T. Sharot, 1975. "A Statistical Analysis of Association Football Attendances," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 24(1), pages 17-27, March.
    15. Mark Baimbridge, 1997. "Match attendance at Euro 96: was the crowd waving or drowning?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(9), pages 555-558.
    16. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-333, August.
    17. Zou, Ning Ning (Helen) & Hobbs, Jill E., 2006. "Modelling functional food choice and health care impacts: A literature review," Consumer and Market Demand Network Papers 91556, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    18. David Forrest & Rob Simmons, 2006. "New Issues in Attendance Demand," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 7(3), pages 247-266, August.
    19. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
    20. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-249, August.
    21. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-331.
    22. Men‐Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2009. "Do Soccer Associations Really Spend On A Good Thing? Empirical Evidence On Heterogeneity In The Consumer Response To Match Uncertainty Of Outcome," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 216-235, April.
    23. Georg Stadtmann & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2002. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 101-112.
    24. Ian J. Bateman & Richard T. Carson & Brett Day & Michael Hanemann & Nick Hanley & Tannis Hett & Michael Jones-Lee & Graham Loomes, 2002. "Economic Valuation with Stated Preference Techniques," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2639.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    3. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2019. "Football Spectator No-Show Behavior," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 580-602, May.
    5. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    6. Dominik Schreyer & Benno Torgler, 2018. "On the Role of Race Outcome Uncertainty in the TV Demand for Formula 1 Grands Prix," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 211-229, February.
    7. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty in the English Premier League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(5), pages 625-644, June.
    8. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    10. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(2), pages 140-161, May.
    11. Marco Di Domizio & Raul Caruso, 2015. "Hooliganism and Demand for Football in Italy: Attendance and Counterviolence Policy Evaluation," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 123-137, May.
    12. Dominik Schreyer, 2019. "Football spectator no-show behaviour in the German Bundesliga," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4882-4901, September.
    13. Trung Minh Dang & Ross Booth & Robert Brooks & Adi Schnytzer, 2015. "Do TV Viewers Value Uncertainty of Outcome? Evidence from the Australian Football League," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(295), pages 523-535, December.
    14. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
    15. Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2012. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 262-277, June.
    16. Buraimo, Babatunde & Simmons, Rob, 2009. "A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 326-338, July.
    17. Alexander John Bond & Francesco Addesa, 2020. "Competitive Intensity, Fans’ Expectations, and Match-Day Tickets Sold in the Italian Football Serie A, 2012-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 20-43, January.
    18. Wen-Jhan Jane, 2014. "The Relationship Between Outcome Uncertainties and Match Attendance: New Evidence in the National Basketball Association," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 45(2), pages 177-200, September.
    19. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2017. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for International Football Games: Evidence From the German TV Market," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 31-45, January.
    20. Christian Gjersing Nielsen & Rasmus K. Storm & Tor Georg Jakobsen, 2019. "The impact of English Premier League broadcasts on Danish spectator demand: a small league perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(6), pages 633-653, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:14:y:2013:i:4:p:341-367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.