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Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches

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Author Info

  • Nicholas King

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • P. Dorian Owen

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Rick Audas

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

Abstract

This paper develops a new simulation-based measure of playoff uncertainty and investigates its contribution to modelling match attendance compared to other variants of playoff uncertainty in the existing literature. A model of match attendance that incorporates match uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, past home-team performance and other relevant control variables is fitted to Australian National Rugby League data for seasons 2004-2008 using fixed effects estimation. The results suggest that playoff uncertainty and home-team success are more important determinants of match attendance than match uncertainty. Alternative measures of playoff uncertainty based on points behind the leader, although more ad hoc, also appear able to capture the effects of playoff uncertainty.

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File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1007.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1007.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision: Aug 2010
Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1007

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Related research

Keywords: playoff uncertainty; match uncertainty; sports league attendance; Australian National Rugby League; fixed effects estimation;

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References

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  1. Robert J. Lemke & Matthew Leonard & Kelebogile Tlhokwane, 2010. "Estimating Attendance at Major League Baseball Games for the 2007 Season," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 316-348, June.
  2. Men-Andri Benz & Leif Brandes & Egon Franck, 2006. "Do Soccer Associations Really Spend on a Good Thing? Empirical Evidence on Heterogeneity in the Consumer Response to Match Uncertainty of Outcome," Working Papers 0009, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2008.
  3. Guggenberger, Patrik, 2010. "The impact of a Hausman pretest on the size of a hypothesis test: The panel data case," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 337-343, June.
  4. Rafael E. De Hoyos & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2006. "Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(4), pages 482-496, December.
  5. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2009. "Towards a New Dynamic Measure of Competitive Balance: A Study Applied to Australia’s Two Major Professional ‘Football’ Leagues," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 407-428, December.
  6. Stephen Dobson & John Goddard & John Wilson, 2001. "League Structure and Match Attendances in English Rugby League," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 335-351.
  7. Mark Baimbridge & Samuel Cameron & Peter Dawson, 1995. "Satellite broadcasting and match attendance: the case of rugby league," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 343-346.
  8. Christopher F Baum, 2001. "Residual diagnostics for cross-section time series regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 1(1), pages 101-104, November.
  9. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
  10. Koning, Ruud H. & Koolhaas, Michael & Renes, Gusta & Ridder, Geert, 2003. "A simulation model for football championships," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 268-276, July.
  11. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2009. "Unobserved Components in Competitive Balance and Match Attendances in the Australian Football League, 1945-2005: Where is all the Action Happening?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 181-196, 06.
  12. repec:fth:geneec:00.04 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-33, August.
  14. J. Colin H. Jones & John A. Schofield & David E.A. Giles, 1999. "Our Fans in the North: The Demand for British Rugby League," Econometrics Working Papers 9902, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2013. "Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length," Working Papers 1309, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
  3. Vincent Hogan & Patrick Massey & Shane Massey, 2012. "Analysing Determinants of Match Attendance in the European Rugby Cup," Working Papers 201228, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  4. P. Dorian Owen, 2013. "Measurement of Competitive Balance and Uncertainty of Outcome," Working Papers 1311, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.

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