A simulation model for football championships
AbstractIn this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like âwhich team had a lucky draw?â or âwhat is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?â. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.
Volume (Year): 148 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
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- Koning, R.H., 2000. "An econometric evaluation of the firing of a coach on team performance," Research Report 00F40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
- P Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2013. "Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length," NCER Working Paper Series 92, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Goossens, Dries & Belien, Jeroen & Spieksma, Frederik, 2008. "Comparing league formats with respect to match importance in Belgian football," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/209046, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2013. "Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length," Working Papers 1309, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
- repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2012.
"Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 262-277, 06.
- Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2010. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," Working Papers 1007, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2010.
- Nicholas King & P Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2010. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," NCER Working Paper Series 61, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Espitia-Escuer, Manuel A. & García-Cebrián, Lucía Isabel, 2012. "Diversificación en la configuración de los equipos de la primera división española de fútbol/Diversification in the Team Configuration of the Spanish Football First Division," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 527-544, Agosto.
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