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A simulation model for football championships

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Author Info

  • Koning, Ruud H.
  • Koolhaas, Michael
  • Renes, Gusta
  • Ridder, Geert

Abstract

In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCT-47RYTYK-7/2/f5fb27f4295449ea3f3821fb0bf8b823
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 148 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 268-276

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:148:y:2003:i:2:p:268-276

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

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References

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  1. Koning, R.H., 2000. "An econometric evaluation of the firing of a coach on team performance," Research Report 00F40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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Cited by:
  1. Nicholas King & P Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2010. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," NCER Working Paper Series 61, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  2. P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2013. "Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length," Working Papers 1309, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
  3. repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Espitia-Escuer, Manuel A. & García-Cebrián, Lucía Isabel, 2012. "Diversificación en la configuración de los equipos de la primera división española de fútbol/Diversification in the Team Configuration of the Spanish Football First Division," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 527-544, Agosto.

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