A simulation model for football championships
AbstractIn this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like âwhich team had a lucky draw?â or âwhat is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?â. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.
Volume (Year): 148 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
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- repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS
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"Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 262-277, 06.
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- Espitia-Escuer, Manuel A. & García-Cebrián, Lucía Isabel, 2012. "Diversificación en la configuración de los equipos de la primera división española de fútbol/Diversification in the Team Configuration of the Spanish Football First Division," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 527-544, Agosto.
- P Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2013.
"Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length,"
NCER Working Paper Series
92, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2013. "Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length," Working Papers 1309, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
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