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An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastián Cea

    (University of Chile)

  • Guillermo Durán

    (University of Buenos Aires
    CONICET
    University of Chile
    Ciudad Universitaria)

  • Mario Guajardo

    (NHH Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Denis Sauré

    (University of Chile)

  • Joaquín Siebert

    (University of Chile)

  • Gonzalo Zamorano

    (University of Chile)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the procedure used by FIFA up until 2018 to rank national football teams and define by random draw the groups for the initial phase of the World Cup finals. A predictive model is calibrated to form a reference ranking to evaluate the performance of a series of simple changes to that procedure. These proposed modifications are guided by a qualitative and statistical analysis of the FIFA ranking. We then analyze the use of this ranking to determine the groups for the World Cup finals. After enumerating a series of deficiencies in the group assignments for the 2014 World Cup, a mixed integer linear programming model is developed and used to balance the difficulty levels of the groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastián Cea & Guillermo Durán & Mario Guajardo & Denis Sauré & Joaquín Siebert & Gonzalo Zamorano, 2020. "An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 286(1), pages 119-146, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:286:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-019-03261-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03261-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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