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Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga

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  • Lahvicka, Jiri

Abstract

In the top Czech ice hockey competition “Extraliga”, 14 geographically close teams compete during a regular season in a pure round-robin tournament. However, the eventual champion is determined in the additional playoff stage; the regular season just decides which teams qualify for the playoffs and how these teams are seeded. This paper uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show that although the additional playoff stage heavily favors higher-seeded teams and consists of a lot of matches, it lowers the probability of the best team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44608.

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Date of creation: 27 Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44608

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Keywords: seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo; ice hockey; tournament design;

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  1. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
  2. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys, 2011. "Game Attendance and Competitive Balance in the National Hockey League," Working Papers 1114, International Association of Sports Economists & North American Association of Sports Economists.
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  7. Scarf, Philip & Yusof, Muhammad Mat & Bilbao, Mark, 2009. "A numerical study of designs for sporting contests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 190-198, October.
  8. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
  9. P. A. Scarf & M. M. Yusof, 2011. "A numerical study of tournament structure and seeding policy for the soccer World Cup Finals," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 43-57, 02.
  10. Szymanski, Stefan, 2001. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F69-84, February.
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