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How to improve a team's position in the FIFA ranking? A simulation study

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  • Jan Lasek
  • Zoltán Szlávik
  • Marek Gagolewski
  • Sandjai Bhulai

Abstract

In this paper, we study the efficacy of the official ranking for international football teams compiled by FIFA, the body governing football competition around the globe. We present strategies for improving a team's position in the ranking. By combining several statistical techniques, we derive an objective function in a decision problem of optimal scheduling of future matches. The presented results display how a team's position can be improved. Along the way, we compare the official procedure to the famous Elo rating system. Although it originates from chess, it has been successfully tailored to ranking football teams as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Lasek & Zoltán Szlávik & Marek Gagolewski & Sandjai Bhulai, 2016. "How to improve a team's position in the FIFA ranking? A simulation study," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(7), pages 1349-1368, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:43:y:2016:i:7:p:1349-1368
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2015.1100593
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastián Cea & Guillermo Durán & Mario Guajardo & Denis Sauré & Joaquín Siebert & Gonzalo Zamorano, 2020. "An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 286(1), pages 119-146, March.
    2. Marek M. Kaminski, 2022. "How Strong Are Soccer Teams? The “Host Paradox” and Other Counterintuitive Properties of FIFA’s Former Ranking System," Games, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Guillermo Durán, 2021. "Sports scheduling and other topics in sports analytics: a survey with special reference to Latin America," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(1), pages 125-155, April.
    4. Collingwood, James A.P. & Wright, Michael & Brooks, Roger J., 2023. "Simulating the progression of a professional snooker frame," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 1286-1299.
    5. L'aszl'o Csat'o & L'aszl'o Marcell Kiss & Zsombor Sz'adoczki, 2023. "The allocation of FIFA World Cup slots based on the ranking of confederations," Papers 2310.19100, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    6. László Csató, 2020. "The UEFA Champions League seeding is not strategy-proof since the 2015/16 season," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 161-169, September.
    7. Csató, László, 2017. "European qualifiers to the 2018 FIFA World Cup can be manipulated," MPRA Paper 82652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lapré Michael A. & Palazzolo Elizabeth M., 2023. "The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 19(4), pages 317-332, December.

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