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Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports

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  • Jean-Marc Falter
  • Christophe Perignon

Abstract

The aims of this study are (i) to identify the main determinants of the demand for French Premiere Division football matches using all matches played during the 1997/1998 season, (ii) to estimate a team-specific probability of success, and (iii) to propose an updating process for the intramatch winning probability. The methodology is tested empirically over an out-of-sample data set using matches of the 1998/1999 season. The results show that football appears to be an inferior product affected by both socio-economic and football variables, and that the main football variables have only a tenuous explanatory power concerning the final outcome of a given match.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368400421101
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 1757-1765

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:13:p:1757-1765

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Cited by:
  1. Wladimir Andreff, 2014. "Building Blocks for a Disequilibrium Model of a European Team Sports League," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00971782, HAL.
  2. Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Stephan Nuesch, 2006. "Local Heroes and Superstars - An Empirical Analysis of Star Attraction in German Soccer," Working Papers 0046, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2007.
  3. Barajas, Angel & Crolley, Liz, 2005. "A model to explain support in Spanish football," MPRA Paper 3235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
  5. Barajas, Angel, 2004. "Modelo de valoración de clubes de fútbol basado en los factores clave de su negocio
    [Valuation model for football clubs based on the key factors of their business]
    ," MPRA Paper 13158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Caruso Raul & Di Domizio Marco, 2013. "Hooliganism and demand for football in Italy: Attendance and counter-violence policy evaluation," wp.comunite 0101, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  7. Rottmann, Horst & Seitz, Franz, 2006. "Warum gehen die Leute in die Fußballstadien? Eine empirische Analyse der Fußball-Bundesliga," OTH im Dialog: Weidener Diskussionspapiere 1, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
  8. Raul Caruso & Marco Di Domizio, 2012. "Domanda Di Calcio E Violenza Negli Stadi: Un’Analisi Panel Sulla Serie A," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 8(2), pages 41-66, settembre.
  9. P. Dorian Owen, 2013. "Measurement of Competitive Balance and Uncertainty of Outcome," Working Papers 1311, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2013.
  10. Egon Franck & Stephan Nüesch, 2007. "The Role of Patriotism in Explaining TV Audience of National Team Games - Evidence from Four International Tournaments," Working Papers 0065, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
  11. Papahristodoulou, Christos, 2007. "An analysis of Champions League match statistics," MPRA Paper 3605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Drayer, Joris & Rascher, Daniel A. & McEvoy, Chad D., 2012. "An examination of underlying consumer demand and sport pricing using secondary market data," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 448-460.
  13. Drayer, Joris & Shapiro, Stephen L., 2011. "An examination into the factors that influence consumers’ perceptions of value," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 389-398.
  14. Yusuf Emre Akgunduz & Marcel van den Berg, 2013. "Make or buy? Human capital accumulation strategies in European club football," Working Papers 13-17, Utrecht School of Economics.

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