Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments
AbstractThis study aims at predicting the most likely winners of international football tournaments. To this end, this paper employs a relatively simple statistical method, which is based on the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points from domestic football leagues to measure the degree of competitive balance and to use it as a comparative indicator between the contesting countries in international football tournaments. The seasonal CV values computed from over ten seasons of the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000 and 2004 football tournaments were utilized to predict the outcome of these football tournaments. The results based on the short, mid and long-term seasonal CV values suggest that this forecasting approach provides significantly reliable results in the case of Euro 2000 but not in the case of Euro 2004.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0508001.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 15
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://126.96.36.199
Competitive balance; Football; Ranking; UEFA; Sports forecasts.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2005-08-13 (Forecasting)
- NEP-PBE-2005-08-13 (Public Economics)
- NEP-SPO-2005-08-13 (Sports & Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:lan:wpaper:3618 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sauer, Raymond D, et al, 1988. "Hold Your Bets: Another Look at the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 206-13, February.
- S. M. Dobson & J. A. Goddard, 1996. "The Demand for Football in the Regions of England and Wales," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 443-453.
- Raymond Stefani, 1997. "Survey of the major world sports rating systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 635-646.
- Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
- Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
- Késenne Stefan & Szymanski S., 2003.
"Competitive balance and gate revenue sharing in team sports,"
2003003, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Stefan Szymanski & Stefan KÈsenne, 2004. "Competitive balance and gate revenue sharing in team sports," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 165-177, 03.
- Benno Torgler, 2004. "The Economics of the FIFA Football Worldcup," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 287-300, 05.
- repec:lan:wpaper:3726 is not listed on IDEAS
- Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert & Feehan, Patrick, 2002. "A Spatial Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Elasticity of Demand for Soccer," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(3), pages 336-55, August.
- Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-31.
- Robert Houston & Dennis Wilson, 2002. "Income, leisure and proficiency: an economic study of football performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 939-943.
- Robert Hoffmann & Lee Chew Ging & Bala Ramasamy, 2002. "The Socio-Economic Determinants of International Soccer Performance," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 253-272, November.
- Brad R. Humphreys, 2002. "Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 133-148, May.
- B Buraimo & D Forrest & R Simmons, 2004.
"Outcome uncertainty and the couch potato audience,"
542822, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Baimbridge, Mark & Cameron, Samuel & Dawson, Peter, 1996. "Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 317-33, August.
- S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
- El-Hodiri, Mohamed & Quirk, James, 1971. "An Economic Model of a Professional Sports League," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 1302-19, Nov.-Dec..
- Szymanski, Stefan, 2001. "Economics of Sport: Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F1-3, February.
- Lebovic, James H. & Sigelman, Lee, 2001. "The forecasting accuracy and determinants of football rankings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 105-120.
- Jaume Garcia & Placido Rodriguez, 2002.
"The Determinants of Football Match Attendance Revisited: Empirical Evidence from the Spanish Football League,"
Journal of Sports Economics,
, vol. 3(1), pages 18-38, February.
- Jaume Garcia & Plácido Rodríguez, 2001. "The determinants of football match attendance revisited: Empirical evidence from the Spanish Football League," Economics Working Papers 555, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Assessment: The Economics of Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 467-477, Winter.
- repec:lan:wpaper:4011 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "The Degree Of Competition In The European Football Leagues: A Statistical Approach," Others 0508001, EconWPA.
- Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-98, June.
- Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-86, December.
- Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-61, December.
- Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-46, June.
- Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-49, August.
- repec:fth:geneec:00.04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Szymanski, Stefan, 2001. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F69-84, February.
- Thomas Hoehn & Stefan Szymanski, 1999. "The Americanization of European football," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 14(28), pages 203-240, 04.
- Mark Baimbridge, 1997. "Match attendance at Euro 96: was the crowd waving or drowning?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(9), pages 555-558.
- Andrew S. Zimbalist, 2002. "Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues: An Introduction," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 111-121, May.
- repec:lan:wpaper:3620 is not listed on IDEAS
- Martin B. Schmidt & David J. Berri, 2001. "Competitive Balance and Attendance: The Case of Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(2), pages 145-167, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.