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The Economics of Wagering Markets

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Author Info
Raymond D. Sauer

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Abstract

Wagering markets provide a natural laboratory for testing models of market prices and behavior under uncertainty. The literature on wagering, albeit contentious, has established the following. First, prices set in these markets, to a first approximation, are efficient forecasts of outcomes. Second, price changes in these markets are driven by an informed class of bettors and improve prediction. Nevertheless, there are important departures from generic notions of market efficiency. Recent models focusing on diverse information, heterogeneous agents, and transaction costs help to explain these findings.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Literature.

Volume (Year): 36 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 2021-2064
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:36:y:1998:i:4:p:2021-2064

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  1. Palomino, F.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2008. "Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns: The Case of British Soccer Betting," Discussion Paper 2008-99, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan-Williams, 2004. "Costs, biases and betting markets: new evidence," Working Papers 2004/5, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division. [Downloadable!]
  3. John Peirson, 2008. "Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behaviour," Studies in Economics 0819, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
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