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The Favourite-Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football Betting

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Author Info

  • Cain, Michael
  • Law, David
  • Peel, David

Abstract

It is shown that the individual fixed-odds betting market on UK football exhibits the same favourite-longshot bias as that found in horse-racing. The bias appears both in betting on results (home win, away win or draw) and in betting on specific scores, and there are certain trading rules which appear to be profitable. Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions are carried out to estimate the mean number of goals scored by a team in a match with given market odds for the various outcomes. Tables of odds for individual scores are derived and these appear to fit the actual outcomes far better than those of the bookmaker. Copyright 2000 by Scottish Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 47 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 25-36

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:47:y:2000:i:1:p:25-36

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Cited by:
  1. Maschke, Mario & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2010. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status Quo und Reformansätze," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32848, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
  3. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0096, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2009.
  4. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.

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