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Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behaviour

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Author Info
John Peirson ()

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Abstract

We present a new model analyzing the effect of uncertainty faced by bookmakers. It is shown that bettors with inside information or expert analysis decrease the odds set by profit maximizing bookmakers. Data on previously unraced two year old horses and those that have raced previously are used to examine the impact of the greater possibility of insider information on odds bias in relation to unraced horses. The price of a bet on unraced two year olds is found to be on average 15% higher and the effect varies as the probability of winning increases. The latter effect suggests a possible contribution to the favorite-longshot bias and the former shows the importance of insider information in the setting of market prices. The regulation of the use of insider information is discussed in the light of the similar impact of insider information and expert analysis on bookmaker odds.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0819.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0819.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0819

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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Related research
Keywords: Betting; Horseracing; Insider Information; Uncertainty;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2006. "Market Efficiency in Person-to-Person Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 673-689, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-74, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  4. Tuckwell, R H, 1983. "The Thoroughbred Gambling Market: Efficiency, Equity and Related Issues," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 106-18, June.
  5. Russell S. Sobel & S. Travis Raines, 2003. "An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 371-385, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-58, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bruno Jullien & Bernard Salanie, 2000. "Estimating Preferences under Risk: The Case of Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 503-530, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Paton, David & Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Fraser, Stuart, 1999. "Regulating Insider Trading in Betting Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 237-41, July.
  10. Adi Schnytzer & Avichai Snir, 2008. "Herding in Imperfect Betting Markets with Inside Traders," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, September. [Downloadable!]
  11. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Dowie, Jack A, 1976. "On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 139-50, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Shin, Hyun Song, 1991. "Optimal Betting Odds against Insider Traders," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1179-85, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1977. "Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 803-15, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Crafts, Nicholas F R, 1985. "Some Evidence of Insider Knowledge in Horse Race Betting in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 52(27), pages 295-304, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Law, David & Peel, David A, 2002. "Insider Trading, Herding Behaviour and Market Plungers in the British Horse-Race Betting Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(274), pages 327-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Shin, Hyun Song, 1992. "Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders, and the Favourite-Longshot Bias," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 426-35, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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