Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behaviour
AbstractWe present a new model analyzing the effect of uncertainty faced by bookmakers. It is shown that bettors with inside information or expert analysis decrease the odds set by profit maximizing bookmakers. Data on previously unraced two year old horses and those that have raced previously are used to examine the impact of the greater possibility of insider information on odds bias in relation to unraced horses. The price of a bet on unraced two year olds is found to be on average 15% higher and the effect varies as the probability of winning increases. The latter effect suggests a possible contribution to the favorite-longshot bias and the former shows the importance of insider information in the setting of market prices. The regulation of the use of insider information is discussed in the light of the similar impact of insider information and expert analysis on bookmaker odds.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0819.
Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
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