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An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting

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  • Russell Sobel
  • S. Travis Raines

Abstract

Market efficiency dictates it equally profitable to bet on any racing participant, including the favourite or longshot. However, a well-documented anomaly is that racetrack bettors tend to overbet longshots and underbet favourites. This study presents and tests two theoretical explanations for this favourite-longshot bias. The unparalleled richness of the data allows the exploration of how the bias changes with several key variables. This study finds the most popular current explanation for the bias, the risk preference model, cannot explain the data as well as an information-based model, in which the bias depends on bet complexity and the information possessed by bettors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 371-385

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:4:p:371-385

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Maschke, Mario & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2010. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status Quo und Reformansätze," Kiel Policy Brief 18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Charles Moul & Joseph Keller, 2014. "Time to Unbridle U.S. Thoroughbred Racetracks? Lessons from Australian Bookies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 211-239, May.
  3. John Peirson, 2008. "Expert Analysis and Insider Information in Horse Race Betting: Regulating Informed Market Behaviour," Studies in Economics 0819, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  4. Marshall Gramm & Douglas Owens, 2005. "Determinants of betting market efficiency," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 181-185.
  5. Stefan Winter & Martin Kukuk, 2008. "Do horses like vodka and sponging? - On market manipulation and the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 75-87.
  6. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " Liquidity, Market Efficiency and the Influence of Noise Traders: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 341, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).

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